GoldCore Update: Central Bank Bidding War for Gold?

Gold has rallied to new record nominal highs (in dollars, euros and pounds) and is currently trading at $1,176.40/oz, £705/oz and €784/oz respectively. New levels of resistance and support are $1,186/oz and $1,158.43/oz.

Reports from the Financial Chronicle that the Indian central bank may buy the rest of the IMF gold reserves of just over 201.3 tonnes (their recent 200 tonne purchase has resulted in a gain of $800 million dollars so far) has contributed to weakness in the dollar and to new record nominal highs today. With the Chinese, Russian and other central banks (particularly large creditor nations) are looking to also increase their gold reserves (which remain meagre compared to the US and most European gold reserves) there is the possibility of a bidding war for gold which could send the price much higher in 2010.

world gold holdings

The average gold reserves  as a percentage of total foreign exchange and gold reserves, of major industrial nations the US, Japan, ECB, UK, Germany, Italy, France and Switzerland are over 37% (with the Federal Reserve being at 78.9%). Whereas the increasingly powerful creditor nations China, Russia, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil and Singapore have a tiny average of 2.2%. This sets the stage for markedly higher gold prices in the coming months as does increasing investment demand (retail, HNWs, hedge fund and pension funds) which will likely continue to overcome the substantial fall in jewellery demand. This substantial investment demand could possibly lead to a 1970s style parabolic rise in the gold price (gold rose some 25  times from 1971 to 1980) and thus the inflation adjusted high of $2,300/oz remains a realistic long term possibility.

Silver is currently trading at $18.64/oz, £11.21/oz and €12.42/oz.

Platinum Group Metals
Platinum is $1,461/oz, palladium is $373/oz and rhodium is $2,525/$2,625/oz.

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Mark OByrne