16
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold and silver rose marginally in US trading yesterday and have largely traded sideways in Asian and European trading. Gold appears to be consolidating in the $865/oz to $900/oz region and needs a higher weekly close (above $883/oz) and then a close above $900/oz to look good from a technical perspective.

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15
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

While gold fell marginally yesterday on the COMEX, it was up some 1% on the day overall with small gains in Asia and Europe.

Obama’s message of hope for the US economy (while warning that the US economy was “by no means out of the woods just yet”) has been met with indifference in equity markets which are down in Europe this morning.

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14
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold and silver rose yesterday as stocks came under pressure with increasing fears regarding General Motors possible bankruptcy.

Ostensibly positive news from the financials (Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs) has lifted markets in recent days but there are concerns that the positive results may have had more to do with government largesse (with tax payers’ money) and innovative accounting rather than any meaningful return to profitability.

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09
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update – Silver Remains an Essential Diversification with Extremely Strong Fundamentals

Gold and silver rose marginally for a second day yesterday as bargain hunters and value buyers continued to accumulate.

The dollar was up marginally as was oil and stock markets eked out marginal gains.

News that international gold scrap supply (mostly consumers selling jewellery) has for the first time in 30 years surpassed international jewellery demand. Looked at singularly, this is ostensibly bearish. But it is bullish from a contrarian perspective as it shows that there is little or no “gold mania”.

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08
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold rose 1.2% yesterday from oversold levels (silver +0.9%) despite stock markets falling, the dollar strengthening and oil falling for a second day. The rally has continued in Asian and early European trading as equities are again under pressure and gold is again receiving a safe haven bid.

The shadow banking system’s huge and growing toxic debt (IMF revised upwards their estimates from $2 trillion to over $4 trillion) looks set to impede any progress in fixing the ruptured international financial system.

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08
Apr
2009

FT: Ten Principles for a Black Swan-Proof World

The Financial Times published a relevant and interesting article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. 
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest. 

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07
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold fell a further 2.7% yesterday (silver nearly 4.8%) as the animal spirits from the G20 communiqué and much vaunted IMF gold sales led to further selling and the shorts continued to press their advantage. Dollar strength and oil weakness also contributed to the sell off yesterday.

Interestingly, gold has risen strongly overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning despite continued dollar strength and oil weakness.

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06
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold fell 2.85% (silver -3.9%) last week as risk appetite returned due to the G20 communiqué. The selloff has continued in Asia this morning and gold fell to a low of $873/oz prior to rebounding somewhat.

The G20 agreement was long on rhetoric and lofty principles and short on concrete commitments and action.

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02
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold rose slightly yesterday as the dollar fell out the outset of the G20 Summit in London. In trading in London, gold is down some 1% this morning as risk appetite returns to markets with stocks surging internationally.

Jewellery demand and demand from consumers in India and the Middle East has fallen and scrap supply from consumers has increased significantly. Jewellery demand and particularly scrap supply is what is patronizingly called the “dumb money”.

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01
Apr
2009

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold rose 0.8% yesterday (silver -0.4%), as the dollar came under pressure ahead of the G20 gathering in London.

It was the last day of the first quarter which saw gold rise 4.3% which is a second straight quarterly gain. In the quarter, gold was up some 10% in euro terms and some 6% in pound terms.

Gold thus again outperformed most other asset classes (as per performance tables below). The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the first quarter of 2009 at 7608.92, down 13% which was the worst first quarter in percentage terms since 1939.

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