Gold Investments Market Update – Gold Surges on Obama’s Inauguration Day – Concerns regarding Asset Backed Derivatives and ETFs

It is a historic day for the world with the inauguration of the 44th President of the United States of America. Gold has rallied by more than 2% despite continuing dollar strength and oil having collapsed 7% to just over $34 per barrel (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future – Combined – FEB09 : -7.6%) . While the dollar is up on hopes that President Obama can turn around the ailing US and indeed the global economy, stock markets internationally are under pressure again today with increasing concerns regarding the international banking and financial system.

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Gold Investments Market Update – Inauguration of Obama – Hope Amidst Monumental Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Challenges

Gold rallied on the open in Asia to over $845/oz overnight before falling on a stronger dollar, then rising again in early morning trade in Europe before falling again to $838/oz, some $3/oz below its close on Friday. Gold fell 1.5% last week but surged 4% on Friday alone (silver was down 0.5% for the week but surged over 7% on Friday). As has been the pattern in recent years, stock markets fell by far more than gold and silver last week with the S&P 500 down 4.5%. The FTSE 100 was down 6.8pc – its worst week since November.

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Gold Investments Market Update – South African Gold Production Falls Sharply Again

Gold is marginally higher today but has fallen to one month lows as markets await the ECB interest rate decision. The ECB is expected to cut by 0.5% today and that has put the euro and gold under pressure as the dollar has strengthened in recent days. However, the deteriorating outlook for the US economy as seen in the very poor retail numbers yesterday (sixth monthly fall) will likely see the dollar come under renewed pressure in the medium term.

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Gold Investments Market Update – Many Government Mints, Wholesalers and Refiners Internationally Continue to Ration Gold and Sil

Gold is marginally lower today despite sharply weaker oil prices (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future – Combined – FEB09 : -5.14%) and a slightly higher dollar (US DOLLAR INDEX: 83.01 +0.6%). There was significant volatility last week and such volatility often portends a big move up or down. Given the strong fundamentals, gold’s next move is likely to be up, especially as investment demand for gold coins, bars, certificates and exchange traded funds remains very robust.

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The Madoff Ponzi Scheme’s Parallels with the US Social Security System

There are interesting parallels between the Madoff Ponzi scheme and the US and many other social security schemes internationally.

As the huge bulging demographic that is the Baby Boomers retire, the smaller demographic of the next generation will have to fund their retirement. As the Baby Boomers retire and begin to withdraw their funds from Social Security system there will be huge redemptions from US and other stock markets as much of their retirement funds are invested in the stock markets.

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Gold Investments Market Update – Silver Up 17% in Month but Remains Very Oversold

Gold has fallen again today and is down some 1% but continues to consolidate between $830/oz and $890/oz. Gold should remain well bid given the degree of international macroeconomic and geopolitical risk challenging us as we enter the New Year. The Middle East tensions continue to escalate and oil is up another 2.5% again today to some $50 per barrel again. Silver has outperformed even gold in the last 30 days and is trading very well – up nearly 17% versus gold’s rise of 12%.

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Gold Investments Market Update – Geopolitical Risk Escalates and Will Lead to Further Safe Haven Demand

Gold has commenced the New Year as it did in 2008 – up sharply in early trading before selling off somewhat. Gold surged (along with oil) on the open in Asia on geopolitical concerns with the Israeli military offensive against Gaza escalating. However, with oil giving up some of its earlier gains and the dollar stronger against most currencies so far this morning, gold has given up its earlier gains.

The reemergence of geopolitical concerns in the Middle East (and with Russia) is likely to see gold well bid in the mid $800s/oz.

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Gold Investments Year-End Review – Outlook for 2009

Gold Outperformed Most Assets in 2008 – Gold Up 3.9% in USD; Up 5.3% in EUR and Up 34.4% in GBP.
Today’s London AM fix (23/12/08) was $844.01 (USD), £570.85 (GBP) and €603.72 (EUR). At the start of 2008 (January 2nd 2008), gold’s London AM Fix was at $840.75 (USD), £424.81 (GBP)  and €573.34 (EUR). Thus, in 2008 gold is up by 3.9% against the dollar, up 5.3% against the euro and up 34.4% against the pound. The London AM Fix is a widely followed benchmark for physical gold and silver prices and is reported in major newspapers and at many gold-related websites.



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This has led to a sharp outperformance of gold vis-à-vis every major equity indices and commodity in the word, not to mention most property markets (see Chart and Performance table). In March, gold fell from a record nominal high of just over $1,000/oz but it is important to remember that gold is only down some 15% from that record nominal high and this is after surging nearly 60% in the previous 7 months. In the seven months from the start of the credit crunch and the collapse of Bear Stearns, gold had surged by nearly 60% – from $640 in August 2007 to over $1,000 in March 2008.

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Gold Investments Market Update – Silver to Continue to Outperform Other Assets in 2009

Gold fell yesterday on a bounce in the dollar and renewed weakness in the oil and commodity markets. While gold has clearly decoupled from oil and commodities in recent weeks, due to its safe haven currency credentials, oil and the commodities can still effect gold’s performance in the short term. As can weakness in stock markets. Gold trading on the COMEX in the US opening hours has been increasingly correlated with stock markets in recent weeks and months . This correlation with stock markets is however of a short term nature as can clearly be seen in gold’s outperformance of equity markets in recent months and years. The volatility in currency markets is huge and the dollar has rebounded strongly in the last 24 hours (from over 1.47 to back to 1.40 ) which is putting pressure on gold as is the weakness in stock markets. However, the stock market weakness and very uncertain outlook for 2009 will lead to further safe haven demand.

Silver to Continue to Outperform Gold and Other Assets in 2009

Silver has fallen sharply in recent months but will still outperform all major equity indices in 2008. This is quite an achievement especially given the fact that silver has surged in value in recent years and particularly in late 2007 and the start of the financial and economic crisis.

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Gold Investments Market Update- Solvency of UK and US Plc Now Under Threat

Gold’s safe haven credentials have been reaffirmed in recent days as the dollar’s safe haven appeal is increasingly being questioned (see News and Commentary section of homepage). The scale and speed of the decline of the dollar (and to a lesser extent, sterling) in recent days is unprecedented.

The dollar has fallen against all major currencies but especially the euro.

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