28
Feb
2008

Inflation and commodity investment

“Too much money chasing too few goods” – a basic, monetarist definition of inflation.

In the long run, inflation is generally believed to be a monetary phenomenon, i.e. it is attributed to growth in the supply of money. While in the short and medium term it is influenced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and interest rates. The question of whether the short-term effects last long enough to be important is the central topic of debate between the Monetarist and Keynesian schools.

Honey, I shrunk your wage gain

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28
Feb
2008

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold
Gold was up $12.50 to $958.70 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver surged another 54 cents to $19.20 per ounce. In Asian and early European trading, gold and silver remain well bid and have consolidated near these new respective record and 27 year high levels.

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27
Feb
2008

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold
Gold was up $8.70 to $946.10 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver surged 58 cents to $18.66 per ounce. Gold particularly continued to surge in Asian and early European trading.
Gold also surged in British pounds and euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $958.75 and gold fixed at new record highs in most major currencies – at£481.62 and €636.32.

The latest mooted IMF possible gold sale story was rightly treated with disdain by the markets and gold has rallied on the old reliables of surging oil and a sharply falling dollar.

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26
Feb
2008

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold
Gold was down $7.30 to $937.40 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday but silver was up 10 cents to $18.08 per ounce. Gold continued to weaken in Asia but has strengthened somewhat in early European trading and is trading at $934.10 per ounce.

Another mooted IMF gold proposal (more below) may have led some weak longs to liquidate positions yesterday. But after recent week’s surge in gold and last week’s sharp (4.5%) increase in the price of gold, the market was overbought in the short term and ripe for a correction. It was interesting that silver has remained strong despite gold’s less than 1% sell off.

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26
Feb
2008

Property or Equity? Which is the best investment?

Mark Twain said; “Buy land, they’re not making any more of it”

One question I am repeatedly asked is this: “which is a better investment, Property or the Stockmarket”.

As with so many things in life, the answer is “it depends”.
I have to agree with Mark Twain’s observation. Land is a finite resource, and we live on an Island. You don’t need a PHD in stating the obvious to realise that an investment in land or property should, over time, appreciate. Property isn’t a bad investment.

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25
Feb
2008

CNBC Interview Stephen Flood of Gold Investments

CNBC conducted an Interview with Stephen Flood, director of Gold Investments, this morning.

How High Can Gold Go?
“Gold is doing exactly what it should do in this market: it is reacting to risk.

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25
Feb
2008

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold
Gold was down $1 to $944.70 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday but silver was up 10 cents to $18.00 per ounce. Gold rose close to new nominal record highs in early European trading ($951.90) and silver rose to new 27 year highs ($18.15). Last week gold was up by more than 4.5% (more than $40) as fears regarding burgeoning inflation and indeed stagflation began to permeate financial markets. Silver was even stronger and was up by 5% on the week.

Gold remains near new record nominal highs in British pounds and euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $947.50. Gold fixed near new record highs at £482.26 and €639.77.

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25
Feb
2008

Does your Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) offer real choice?

And does it matter?

The foundation of Modern Portfolio Theory was a 1952 paper, “Portfolio Selection” by Dr Harry Markowitz in which he established a theory explaining the best way for an investor to choose a portfolio. Modern Portfolio Theory is of such fundamental importance in investing that the economists that formulated the theory received the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 1990. Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories such as equities, commodities, fixed interest, cash, property and the process of establishing which mix of assets to use, is largely determined by investment objectives, time horizon and tolerance to risk.

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22
Feb
2008

Gold Investments Market Update

Gold
Gold rose $11.10 to $945.70 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 18 cents to $17.90 per ounce. Gold and silver have traded in a narrow range in Asian and early trading in Europe. Gold reached new record nominal highs at $952.75 and silver has surged over $18 per ounce to new 27 year highs at $18.06.

Gold also surged to new record highs in British pounds and in euro. The London PM Fix at 1500 GMT yesterday afternoon was at $945. Gold fixed at new record highs at £482.76 and €641.20.

Increasing fears of stagflation drove gold to new record highs (non inflation adjusted highs) in major currencies. Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have lowered their growth estimates and the Fed has also increased its inflation forecast. The Philly Fed Index fell to its lowest level since 2001 and unemployment news was poor with the 4 week moving average of jobless claims rising 10,750 to 360,500. Meanwhile most commodities continued to rise with zinc and copper surging, leading the base metals higher. Equity markets in Asia and Europe are down and fears of a U.S. recession are sure to be to the fore.

Despite the significant and growing inflation, markets have moved to fully price in a 0.50% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March. Central bankers are throwing in the towel in the fight against inflation in order to try and prevent a systemic crisis and a subsequent deep recession. The risk is that they let the inflation genie fully out of the bottle. Thereby wreaking havoc in the form of an inflationary spiral as was experienced in the 1970s (or worse in 1920s Germany which led to order-of-magnitude increases in prices and interest rates, redenomination of the currency and a wholesale consumer flight from cash to hard assets).

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22
Feb
2008

Max Keiser: ‘Buy Gold!’

Max Keiser, the self-dubbed ‘financial activist’ and occasional reporter for Al-Jazeera’s current affairs program People & Power, is given the youtube treatment with his prescient though irreverrent advice.

‘Buy Gold!’

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