The sharp sell off in the precious metal markets continued yesterday with gold down $13.80 to $848.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver down 38 cents to $16.12 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $854.25, £429.92 and €551.31 (from $863.50, £434.64 €556.74).
Should there be a continuance of the recent trend of dollar strength and oil weakness today then we could see gold test the 200 day moving average at $823.
Early evening on the April 14th 1912 and a passenger on the first class deck of the Titanic would be, no doubt, enjoying the opulence of their surroundings, and the wealth that the British Empire had created. More recently, the “Celtic Tiger” has created new wealth in Ireland so that one can now enjoy a similar fine dining experience as the passengers of the Titanic as the menus show. Yet, we know that the very next night it all lay at the bottom of the Atlantic and no amount of Edwardian engineering could save the ship. One of the key lessons learnt from the Titanic tragedy was that there weren’t enough lifeboats for all the passengers. Today, we are in the midst of a Global crisis and potentially face a new breakdown in the established world order. Just as the death of Queen Victoria in January 1901 at the peak of the British Empire was followed by two World Wars and the emergence of the United States as the dominant Global Hegemonic Power, many commentators such as Paul Kennedy in his bestseller The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, are claiming that Global Hegemony is in the process of shifting. It is possible if not probable that even within our lifetimes, this power will shift east to China or India and just like the situation faced by Great Britain at the turn of the Twentieth Century there is nothing the United States can do about it. This time it isn’t Edwardian engineering that is failing to save us, but financial engineering. Of course nobody knows for sure how events will play out or if we are heading for a recession or even a depression.
It might not be morning again in America but Bush hopes to wake up the economy via his Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. The stimulant – pumping more than $152 billion (or about 1% GDP) into the economy via tax rebate cheques – will start arriving in the mailboxes of Americans over the next three weeks.
The plans proponents are optimistic. Hank Paulson, in a speech confirming that no second stimulus plan would be undertaken, believes the $152-billion stimulus plan could create 500,000 jobs this year. Americans would have to spend their money wisely for the plan to have maximum impact. But what if the rebate money is already owed?
Gold was up $5.70 to $892.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 17 cents to $17.02 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $886.00, £447.50 and €569.23 (from $892.25, £449.04 and €569.36).
Gold is again under pressure in early trading this morning with the dollar continuing to strengthen (to 1.556 to the euro) and oil continuing to sell off (below $118 per barrel) but caution remains the predominant theme ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (more below).
“We know we’re already in negative equity,” said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator. She bought a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in the Dublin suburbs with her fiancé, Paul Colgan, in May 2006, at the peak of the market. They paid €365,000, or $575,000 – at least $100,000 more than it would fetch today.
The bad news regarding the American housing market continue apace. BusinessWeek are reporting that Existing Home Sales Drop for Seventh Straight Month with the national median existing home price dropping 7.7% from a year earlier. That a bubble has burst is clear.
What is not so clear is how much of the contagion has spread worldwide.
Gold was down $19.40 to $886.80 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 50 cents to $16.66 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $883.50, £446.51 and €566.38 (from $900.75 £455.85 and €572.09 yesterday).
Gold again fell below short term support at $900 and we are now retesting support at the early April lows of $870. We expect strong support at these levels but there is a possibility that should gold close below $880 we could retest previous resistance at the 1980 nominal high of $850 per ounce. It is important to remember that even after gold’s recent sharp selloff it remains up for the year to date and up strongly for the last 52 weeks unlike major equity indices (as seen in the table).
Gold broke down from its range bound channel yesterday and quickly fell to support at $895-$900 as anticipated. Should gold fall below $900 we could again retest the support of the early April lows of $880. We expect strong support at these levels but there is a possibility that should gold close below $880 we could retest previous resistance at the 1980 nominal high of $850 per ounce.
Gold remains in lockdown and is range bound in a narrow channel between $910 and $926. A close above or below this channel will likely see gold test support at $880 or challenge resistance at $950 (see Technical Analysis below).
Gold was up $7.40 to $922.10 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 27 cents to $17.61 per ounce. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $916.25, £459.50 and €573.95 (from $920.75, £464.21 and €576.98 yesterday).