Gold Outperformed Most Assets in 2008 - Gold Up 3.9% in USD; Up 5.3% in EUR and Up 34.4% in GBP. Today’s London AM fix (23/12/08) was $844.01 (USD), £570.85 (GBP) and €603.72 (EUR). At the start of 2008 (January 2nd 2008), gold’s London AM Fix was at $840.75 (USD), £424.81 (GBP) and €573.34 (EUR). Thus, in 2008 gold is up by 3.9% against the dollar, up 5.3% against the euro and up 34.4% against the pound. The London AM Fix is a widely followed benchmark for physical gold and silver prices and is reported in major newspapers and at many gold-related websites. 23-Dec-08 Last 1 Month YTD 1 Year 5 Year Gold $ 845.15 5.77% 1.42% 4.16% 105.83% Silver 10.80 12.07% -26.85% -24.60% 89.21% Oil 39.82 -20.93% -59.84% -57.45% 24.63% FTSE 4,283 13.27% -33.66% -33.43% -3.55% Nikkei 8,724 10.27% -42.85% -42.82% -15.89% S&P 500 872 8.95% -40.64% -41.28% -20.25% ISEQ 2,384 2.72% -65.62% -65.57% -51.03% EUR/USD 1.3990 11.15% -4.08% -2.71% 12.85% © 2008 Goldassets.co.uk This has led to a sharp outperformance of gold vis-à-vis every major equity indices and commodity in the word, not to mention most property markets (see Chart and Performance table). In March, gold fell from a record nominal high of just over $1,000/oz but it is important to remember that gold is only down some 15% from that record nominal high and this is after surging nearly 60% in the previous 7 months. In the seven months from the start of the credit crunch and the collapse of Bear Stearns, gold had surged by nearly 60% - from $640 in August 2007 to over $1,000 in March 2008.
Gold fell yesterday on a bounce in the dollar and renewed weakness in the oil and commodity markets. While gold has clearly decoupled from oil and commodities in recent weeks, due to its safe haven currency credentials, oil and the commodities can still effect gold’s performance in the short term. As can weakness in stock markets. Gold trading on the COMEX in the US opening hours has been increasingly correlated with stock markets in recent weeks and months . This correlation with stock markets is however of a short term nature as can clearly be seen in gold’s outperformance of equity markets in recent months and years. The volatility in currency markets is huge and the dollar has rebounded strongly in the last 24 hours (from over 1.47 to back to 1.40 ) which is putting pressure on gold as is the weakness in stock markets. However, the stock market weakness and very uncertain outlook for 2009 will lead to further safe haven demand. Silver to Continue to Outperform Gold and Other Assets in 2009 Silver has fallen sharply in recent months but will still outperform all major equity indices in 2008. This is quite an achievement especially given the fact that silver has surged in value in recent years and particularly in late 2007 and the start of the financial and economic crisis.
Gold's safe haven credentials have been reaffirmed in recent days as the dollar's safe haven appeal is increasingly being questioned (see News and Commentary section of homepage). The scale and speed of the decline of the dollar (and to a lesser extent, sterling) in recent days is unprecedented. The dollar has fallen against all major currencies but especially the euro.
The surprise move by the Fed to lower the Fed funds rate by more than 75 basis points to a record low and an unprecedented band between 0.25% and 0% led to sharp falls in the dollar (low of 1.4188 to the euro) and a spike in the gold price to over $859.40/oz. The Federal Reserve has embraced 'Helicopter Bernanke's' "inflate or die" massive reserve and money creation academic theories in an attempt to prevent deflation. Markets realise that this will lead to a lower dollar and higher gold prices in the medium and long term.
Gold rose again yesterday and the dollar fell sharply in anticipation of the Federal Reserve further slashing interest rates to record lows of 0.5% today. In a desperate bid to prevent a recession deepening, the Federal Reserve is prepared to slash interest rates to an all-time low near 0% today. With ZIRP (zero interest rate) policies, the US and global economy and monetary system is entering unchartered territory which is leading to continuing safe haven demand for gold.
Gold rallied sharply last week and was up nearly 9% despite continuing uncertainty and a very mixed performance in stock markets. The US dollar index fell some 4% on the week and it looks increasingly likely that the dollar may have topped out and may soon resume its bear market.
Gold rallied sharply yesterday, for the fourth day in a row, on sharply higher oil prices (some 10%) and a weaker dollar. Gold gave up some of its gains overnight in Asia as the dollar bounced after recent sharp losses in volatile trade. Gold’s rally yesterday had nothing to do with an increase in risk appetite. If that was the case, why have stock markets internationally been falling sharply again in recent days and yesterday?
There have been a spate of articles in the press recently including the Personal Finance section of the Irish Times touting jewellery and diamonds as safe haven “rock solid” investments. Rock solid investment Looking for a rock-solid investment? A girl's best friend and a smart way to invest This is dangerous nonsense and irresponsible journalism of the highest order. Investors have lost enough money in recent years due to appalling investment “advice” regarding equities and property and it is important they do not compound that by “investing” in diamonds and jewellery. As ever real diversification in all asset classes is essential.
Gold rallied sharply yesterday, for the third day in a row, on higher oil prices and a weakening dollar.
Gold rallied for a second day yesterday on concerns regarding the deepening US recession and the dollar. Gold has continued to rally in Asian and early European trading. The bounce in oil prices is likely lending support as is continuing robust physical demand internationally. Asian equity markets were largely positive overnight but European ones are again under pressure this morning. The global deflationary spiral appears to be accelerating as are desperate attempts by politicians and central bankers to reflate their way out of the recession.
It wouldn't be suprising if you had never heard of backwardation. Though many commodities markets are frequently in backwardation, especially for seasonal or perishable/soft commodities, it has only happened twice in history in precious metals.
After falling sharply last week, gold rallied yesterday on the back of a weaker dollar, higher oil (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - JAN09 is up more than 6% yesterday after falling an incredible 25% last week) and commodity prices and the Obama fiscal stimulus package. The economic recession will get significantly worse before it starts to improve, US President-elect Barack Obama said in an interview at the weekend.
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