Gold rose by just over 1% yesterday to over $900/oz as renewed risk aversion saw stock and bond markets come under pressure. Gold subsequently traded sideways in Asia prior to another strong rally at 0800 GMT when gold surged from $901/oz to $926/oz in the hour. It has since given up some of those gains but remains above $920/oz. Demand remains very high internationally for ETFs, gold certificates and bullion coins and bars.
Retail investors may be considering making investments into commodities through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) yet in our experience, they may lack a full understanding of the potential hidden costs associated with these investment vehicles.
Gold traded sideways in Asia overnight but has fallen in early European trading. Increasing risk appetite has seen equities rally again and this is likely leading to profit taking in the gold market. With gold having increased by some $100, more than 12% in less than 10 trading days and some will be taking profits. The market may look for guidance from the FOMC rate decision and OTC option expiry later today. The outcome of the FOMC policy meeting takes centre stage today and the committee is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 0-0.25%.
After last week's strong gains, gold continued to surge in all currencies yesterday reaching new record highs in euro and pounds sterling. Prices remained firm in early trading in Asia prior to giving up some of yesterday's gains. The convincing technical close well above previous resistance should see gold (and silver) soon embark on the next leg up in their secular bull markets. Resistance for gold was at $880/oz and this may well become support.
Gold has consolidated on the strong gains seen last week of 6.43% rise in the week (silver +6.6%). Gold fell initially in Asia to $890/oz before rising sharply in early trading in Europe to over $907/oz. Much of the technical damage done in recent weeks has been overcome and gold is again looking bullish from a technical and fundamental viewpoint. But it needs a daily or better a weekly close above the recent October high of $925/oz if it is to again surpass last year's record high of over $1,000/oz.
Gold fell slightly yesterday consolidating on the sharp gains of the inauguration day. Gold rose some $10.00 to $865.00 by early trade in London before falling in Europe and early trading in the US, but it then rallied back higher in afternoon trade and ended with a loss of just 0.40%. Silver traded similarly but as has been the case recently, outperformed gold by rising over 1%. Markets await US data today including Building Permits for December, Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims which are not expected to cheer the markets and should lead to further safe haven demand for gold.
Gold rose strongly on the inauguration of the 44th President, President Obama, yesterday - rising some 2% in dollar terms. It subsequently gave up some of those gains in Asia prior to rallying again in early European trading to over $860/oz. And gold’s strength came despite a very strong dollar yesterday. Importantly, this meant that gold surged in euro and to new record highs in British pounds at £624.85/oz This morning’s London AM fix (21/01/09) was $860.50 (USD), £624.59 (GBP) and €666.02 (EUR).
It is a historic day for the world with the inauguration of the 44th President of the United States of America. Gold has rallied by more than 2% despite continuing dollar strength and oil having collapsed 7% to just over $34 per barrel (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - FEB09 : -7.6%) . While the dollar is up on hopes that President Obama can turn around the ailing US and indeed the global economy, stock markets internationally are under pressure again today with increasing concerns regarding the international banking and financial system.
Gold rallied on the open in Asia to over $845/oz overnight before falling on a stronger dollar, then rising again in early morning trade in Europe before falling again to $838/oz, some $3/oz below its close on Friday. Gold fell 1.5% last week but surged 4% on Friday alone (silver was down 0.5% for the week but surged over 7% on Friday). As has been the pattern in recent years, stock markets fell by far more than gold and silver last week with the S&P 500 down 4.5%. The FTSE 100 was down 6.8pc - its worst week since November.
Gold is marginally higher today but has fallen to one month lows as markets await the ECB interest rate decision. The ECB is expected to cut by 0.5% today and that has put the euro and gold under pressure as the dollar has strengthened in recent days. However, the deteriorating outlook for the US economy as seen in the very poor retail numbers yesterday (sixth monthly fall) will likely see the dollar come under renewed pressure in the medium term.
Gold is marginally lower today despite sharply weaker oil prices (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - FEB09 : -5.14%) and a slightly higher dollar (US DOLLAR INDEX: 83.01 +0.6%). There was significant volatility last week and such volatility often portends a big move up or down. Given the strong fundamentals, gold’s next move is likely to be up, especially as investment demand for gold coins, bars, certificates and exchange traded funds remains very robust.
There are interesting parallels between the Madoff Ponzi scheme and the US and many other social security schemes internationally. As the huge bulging demographic that is the Baby Boomers retire, the smaller demographic of the next generation will have to fund their retirement. As the Baby Boomers retire and begin to withdraw their funds from Social Security system there will be huge redemptions from US and other stock markets as much of their retirement funds are invested in the stock markets.
Gold has fallen again today and is down some 1% but continues to consolidate between $830/oz and $890/oz. Gold should remain well bid given the degree of international macroeconomic and geopolitical risk challenging us as we enter the New Year. The Middle East tensions continue to escalate and oil is up another 2.5% again today to some $50 per barrel again. Silver has outperformed even gold in the last 30 days and is trading very well – up nearly 17% versus gold’s rise of 12%.
Gold has commenced the New Year as it did in 2008 – up sharply in early trading before selling off somewhat. Gold surged (along with oil) on the open in Asia on geopolitical concerns with the Israeli military offensive against Gaza escalating. However, with oil giving up some of its earlier gains and the dollar stronger against most currencies so far this morning, gold has given up its earlier gains. The reemergence of geopolitical concerns in the Middle East (and with Russia) is likely to see gold well bid in the mid $800s/oz.
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