Gold's correction continues and it has fallen for four days in a row now but the long term fundamentals remain very sound. Bargain hunters are likely to reemerge at these levels which should be supportive. Gold remains up more than 7% so far this year (in dollar terms as per table and much more in euro and sterling) and continues to significantly outperform battered stock markets.
Gold fell yesterday on profit taking and ended the day down 2.3% at $969.25/oz (silver fell by 3.1% to $13.98/oz). A short term correction was expected and warned of and this correction was necessary after gold becoming overbought in the short term. Gold had rallied over $100 (from $890/oz on February 9th to just over $1,000/oz on February 20th) or some 12% in less than two weeks.
Gold and silver remained resilient yesterday (gold slightly lower; silver slightly higher) despite the continual wave of mini tsunamis shaking the global economy.
Gold has given up some of last’s weeks very large gains and is down 0.6% after Asian and early European trading. With gold up some 13% so far in 2009, some correction and consolidation may be necessary prior to overcoming resistance at $1,000/oz. The inverse correlation between stock markets and precious metals was seen again last week as gold and silver surged by over 6% while most major stock markets were down by some 6% (S&P 500 was down by 6.8%).
Gold has rallied strongly again this morning and is up 1.5% at $990/oz after consolidating around the $975/oz mark yesterday. Stock markets are under severe pressure again this morning after yesterday’s 7 year low close for the Dow Jones. There is a risk here of a panic sell off in stock markets and the next leg down in the stock bear market looks imminent as the ills of the global financial system virulently infect the global economy.
Increasing fears of a global recession and possibly even a depression, saw gold rise another 3.2% (silver was up 4.5%) on increasing international safe haven demand. Markets participants are realizing that while sharp deflation is the challenge today, in a few months we may be confronted with an even greater challenge in the form of stagflation and possibly even mild hyperinflation. The World Gold Council have reported that demand for gold rose 29% in the last year.
After another strong week last week (both gold and silver were up some 3%) despite falling stock markets, gold continues its outperformance of other asset classes due to safe haven demand.
The answer to this global credit debacle is transparency. There are enormous sums of investor money waiting in the sidelines. The reason they have not been invested yet is due to a lack of transparency within the balance sheets of those institutions that constitute the global financial landscape. Make no mistake; capital needs to be deployed in order to create a return. With such uncertainty surrounding the global capital markets it is entirely normal that investors would pull back until a sense of clarity itself develops.
Gold rose again yesterday, briefly rising above $950/oz and was up 0.6% on the day. Determined selling on the open in Asia saw gold fall and profit taking has seen gold fall in Asia and in early trading in London. This is to be expected as gold had risen by more than 15% in less than a month.
Gold surged a further 3.3% yesterday to $942.45 (as did silver) as worries about the US and global financial system and economy continue to grow and governments print money on an unprecedented scale to combat the economic crisis.
Gold surged yesterday (up 2.4% and silver was up 2.3%) as stock markets fell sharply with investors increasingly frustrated and nervous with the lack of details about the US government's latest $2,000 billion bank bailout plan. There is resistance at $930/oz and further consolidation may be necessary at these levels prior to closing above this level but gold is looking very strong both technically and fundamentally.
Profit taking saw gold fall yesterday but continuing very robust demand for physical bullion and gold ETF’s for safe haven purposes means that this is likely another period of consolidation. There is a dawning realization that we are in the early stages of a severe global recession and possibly even a global depression. In this uncertain climate for the global financial system and the global economy itself, risk aversion is set to remain elevated and thus demand for physical gold bullion will also remain elevated.
Gold fell some 1.5% last week as investors took profits with gold having been up some 10% in the previous three 3 weeks. But the short and medium term prospects look sound in the light of strong fundamentals and some important indicators – silver was up by another 4.2% last week and the gold mining indices were also higher (XAU +4.6% and HUI +2.3%). The mining indices are often a leading indicator and silver usually underperforms gold in the early stages of rallies and outperforms in the latter.
Gold remains firm as there is increasing nervousness about the global economy and indeed nervousness about the global monetary system and this is leading to continuing strong investment demand. Gold remains at or near record highs in nearly all major currencies ($914.00 £622.11 €713.06) and looks set to regain its nominal record high of $1,030/oz in the coming weeks. UBS joined Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch in drastically increasing their gold price forecasts yesterday.
The following is an excerpt from John Kay's new book 'The Long and the Short of It: Finance and Investment for Normally Intelligent People who are not in the Industry’ as published in the Financial Times Personal Finance section: ...
With stock and bond markets under renewed pressure, gold remains very well bid and is up some 0.6% in early trading in Europe. Goldman Sachs have increased their forecast for gold from the previously very low $700/oz to over $1,000/oz in the next three months due to “rising investor demand for safe haven assets”.
Gold has recovered somewhat from the 1.5% loss yesterday to close at $890.60 (as did silver which was down 0.6%) and rose 1% in after hours and is trading at just below $900/oz in late morning trading in Europe. While stock markets have had a relief rally on a return of risk appetite, the US bond market was again under pressure as was the dollar.
Gold continues to consolidate near recent highs despite profit taking falls.