Review of 2010 Summary 2010 was a year that many will be glad to see the back of due to the deepening of the global economic crisis and the ensuing financial and economic hardship visited upon many. Worst hit were the unfortunately named PIGS with Portugal, Spain and particularly Greece and Ireland suffering the wrath of the bond vigilantes, austerity measures and deepening economic crises.
Gold The final week of 2010 has seen a continuation of trends seen in markets throughout the year with equities and commodities continuing to rise. Investors increasingly wary of inflation are pushing commodity prices - particularly metals - higher, with copper hitting a new record nominal high, palladium reaching a nine-year high and silver at a new 30-year record nominal high at $30.90/oz (€23.25/oz and £19.86/oz). Gold is currently trading at $1,411.15/oz, €1,064.62/oz and £913.90/oz.
Gold Gold has fallen marginally in all major currencies today. Market participants are winding down before the holiday break and further profit taking and year end book squaring is seeing volume fall and gold remain in a tight range. Gold will likely get direction from the durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and new home sales data later today. Gold is currently trading at $1,382.43/oz, €1,055.37/oz and £897.97/oz.
Gold Gold and silver edged moderately higher again yesterday in most currencies. Profit taking and book squaring prior to year end have led to lacklustre range bound price action. News that the IMF gold sales to central banks has been completed, saw gold prices rise slightly. Despite the gold sales being off market - directly from the IMF to creditor nation central banks diversifying monetary reserves - the potential overhang of IMF gold supply and perceived risk was one of the few bearish factors in the gold market.
Gold Gold's recent correction continued yesterday but it has risen today as the dollar has fallen. Gold is up in most currencies this morning except in euro terms as the euro has seen a relief rally on the outcome of the EU agreement to create a post-1913 crisis tool. Fundamental disagreements remain though and the agreement may not be enough to stop the debt crisis from deepening with many analysts pinpointing the first quarter of 2011 as a high risk period. Gold is currently trading at $1,371.78/oz, €1,030.20/oz and £878.47/oz.
Gold Gold and silver are higher this morning ahead of a crucial EU summit on the deepening euro zone debt crisis today. The euro firmed slightly in overnight trade but has since given up those gains and is trading at USD 1.322, and €1,047/oz. Given that the crisis shows no signs of abating any time soon, with concerns shifting from Ireland and Greece to Belgium, Portugal and Spain, gold will likely continue to receive safe haven demand for the foreseeable future.
Gold Gold has fallen in dollars but is flat in sterling and euros this morning. Moody's has cut Spain's debt rating on contagion concerns which has seen the euro fall. Germany's opposition to further government financed aid is leading to tensions with the ECB, which is itself now under financial pressure and may need an increase in capital if it is to continue buying sovereign European debt. Gold is currently trading at $1,388.70/oz, €1,042.18/oz and £886.54/oz.
Gold Gold has risen in major currencies again today on continuing concerns about the dollar and paper currencies, and growing concerns about the emergence of inflation internationally. Commodity prices remain strong with bellwether copper rising to new record nominal highs and oil continuing to hover near $90 a barrel. Gold is currently trading at $1,405.35/oz, €1,044.48/oz and £886.04/oz.
Gold Most currencies fell against gold yesterday and again today as the euro and dollar are under slight pressure this morning. Both gold and silver look set to finish the week slightly lower in dollars and most currencies (except the euro) which is a bearish short term omen. Especially as the end of the year approaches and there could be some year-end book balancing and profit taking. Gold is currently trading at $1,391.19/oz, €1,049.56/oz and £878.35/oz.
Gold Market focus has shifted to the US bond market and concerns about ultra accommodative US monetary and fiscal policy and continuing quantitative easing. This has seen heavy selling of long term US government debt and long term interest rates have thus risen. The yield on US 10 year Treasuries (benchmark cost of capital internationally) has risen from below 2.4% to over 3.2% in just two months and from 2.95% to 3.23% since just last Monday and the speed of the rise is what is concerning.
Gold Gold and silver prices reached new record highs of $1,430.95/oz and 30 year highs of $30.68/oz respectively yesterday. It is important to remember that these are nominal highs of more than 30 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, the record highs are $2,300/oz and $130/oz (see silver charts below). Gold also reached new record nominal highs in sterling, euros and most major currencies yesterday on growing concerns about currency debasement. Gold is currently trading at $1,395.56/oz, €1,053.81/oz and £885.73/oz.
In the last 40 years, a very significant amount of silver has been consumed in consumer and industrial applications. Gold's consumption is tiny in comparison. The fundamentals reasons for our continuing positive outlook for silver are continuing and increasing global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks; silver’s historic role as money and a store of value; the declining and very small supply of silver; significant industrial demand and most importantly significant and increasing investment demand.
Gold Gold has reached new record nominal highs (in most major currencies) and silver a new 30 year nominal high due to a variety of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Market focus remains on the Eurozone debt crisis but has shifted somewhat to concerns about ultra loose US monetary policy and the likelihood that this will lead to a devaluation of the dollar, inflation and currency debasement. Gold is currently trading at $1,428.68/oz, €1,067.69/oz and £904.57/oz.
Gold Gold is higher in all currencies again this morning (see Cross Currency Table below) and is heading for a second weekly gain in dollars (and other major currencies), as China's imports surged, geopolitical risk in the Korean peninsula remains elevated and uncertainty about the euro, currencies and paper assets in general is leading to continued safe haven demand. Gold is currently trading at $1,390.30/oz, €1,054.78/oz and £890.30/oz.
Gold Gold and silver are higher again today in all currencies after eking out marginal gains yesterday, when gold rose to new record nominal highs in euros and in British pounds at £895.44/oz. The weakness of sterling against gold shows that the euro and the dollar are not the only currencies about which investors are concerned. Gold at $1,391/oz remains some 2% below its record nominal high seen on the 9th of November ($1,421/oz London PM Fix) and after the recent period of consolidation looks set to challenge this level again.