Gold and silver have consolidated on yesterday's gains as inflation, geopolitical and eurozone debt concerns support. Silver has risen above its 31-year record closing price of yesterday and looks set to target new record nominal intraday highs above $38.16/oz. 'Poor man's gold' is set for a record nominal quarterly close which will be bullish technically and set silver up to target the psychological resistance at $40/oz and then the nominal high of $50.35/oz . Silver's record quarterly close was $32.20/oz on December 31st, 1979.
Gold and, particularly, silver are higher in European trading, especially in Japanese yen, which has come under pressure again today. The initial 'repatriation funds' yen rally in the days after the natural and nuclear disaster has abated. Gold is again close to record nominal highs in yen (119,000/oz) and other currencies. The outlook for the yen is not good due to massive fiscal and demographic challenges, zero percent interest rates and ongoing currency debasement - none of which will be helped by the nuclear disaster.
Gold and silver are lower again today with short term momentum traders taking advantage of recent weakness and capping of the gold price at record nominal highs. Options expiry often sees gold and silver prices fall but recover sharply within days of expiry and this is likely to be the pattern again after yesterday's expiration.
Gold and silver have fallen in Asian and early European trading, despite global uncertainty leading to weakness in equity and bond markets. Support is likely to come from eurozone debt concerns, geopolitical risk and the deepening nuclear crisis in Japan - the true extent of which remains unacknowledged.
Gold and silver remain supported by continuing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation, the European sovereign debt crisis, conflict in Libya and the wider Middle East and the nuclear disaster in Japan are all factors which will likely result in gold reaching new record nominal highs in all currencies sooner rather than later.
Happy Saint Patrick's Day It seems somewhat wrong to celebrate Saint Patrick’s Day while the tragic events in Japan continue to enfold. But the events in Japan show how important it is that we celebrate and be grateful for life and being alive through joyous moments with family, friends and community.
Markets have recovered somewhat from the recent sharp sell offs despite the worsening nuclear situation in Japan. Gold and silver have made very tentative gains from the falls seen yesterday as commodity and equity markets (and the Nikkei in particular) have stabilised somewhat after the recent sharp falls.
Japan's nuclear crisis has deepened and we deeply regret to say that there is now the real possibility of a nuclear catastrophe. Investor panic has set in with the Nikkei down over 16.5% in two days and the Topic index down by 17% - its worst two-day loss since the 1987 Wall Street stock market crash.
The world is still coming to terms with the terrible tragedy in Japan. A second explosion at the Fukushima nuclear reactor overnight and Pentagon reports of radiation being detected 60 miles away from the reactor suggest widening nuclear contamination leading to concerns of a nuclear catastrophe.
The massive earthquake and tsunami that has rocked Japan is being digested by markets and the economic ramifications and uncertainty is leading to risk aversion.
Risk aversion has returned with equity markets internationally under pressure after the Spanish downgrade and continuing geopolitical tension. Gold and silver have taken a breather and are lower in all currencies today. A correction is well overdue but the technicals and fundamentals would suggest that any sell off may again be short and shallow.
The President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, called for a new post Bretton-Woods currency system involving gold, in November 2010. Zoellick said that gold was worthy of consideration as a reference point for modern currencies and as an indicator to help set foreign exchange rates.
Renewed fears over eurozone debt have seen the euro fall against most currencies and precious metals today. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds is approaching an alarming 13% after jumping to a new record high of 12.89% today (see bond charts below). The Portuguese 10-year rose to a new record high of 7.7% ahead of today’s auction where they borrowed 1 billion euros in order to avoid a “bailout”.
Silver is higher against all currencies today and remains near yesterday’s 31 year high of $36.75/oz. Gold is slightly higher against most currencies, especially the Swiss franc and euro.
Concerns about Libya, Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa continue to dominate markets. There are growing concerns of contagion and oil supply disruptions from the region. Oil and gold have risen and silver for immediate delivery surged another 2.3% after climbing to $36.5375/oz, the highest price since February 14, 1980 when silver reached a its nominal high $50.35/oz.
Gold and silver have recovered somewhat from slight falls in Asia overnight and are now higher against the British pound and Swiss franc which are weaker this morning. With geopolitical instability looking set to escalate and the real possibility of a military confrontation in the Mediterranean, any sell off in the precious metals will likely be tentative.
Gold prices settled at a new record high yesterday, as unrest in North Africa and the Middle East pushed the safe haven currency to $1,435/oz. Silver surged to new 30-year record nominal highs at $34.74/oz. Prices surged in dollars and all major currencies and look set to reach record highs in other currencies.
Silver has risen another 1.4% today to a high of $34.44/oz and above the 31-year interday high of $34.33/oz reached last Tuesday (February 22nd). Silver is higher in all currencies this morning, especially the Japanese yen. The news that Saudi Arabia may be sending tanks to crush anti-government protests in Bahrain saw buying of silver, gold and oil.
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