Daily Market Update

August 2012: Gold and Platinum Up 2.7% And 6.4% While Silver Surges 9%

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,657.75, EUR 1,319.03 and GBP 1,047.68 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,657.00, EUR 1,320.21 and GBP 1,046.48 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $30.61/oz, €24.42/oz and £19.39/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,516.00/oz, palladium at $617.00/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz.

Gold fell $0.80 or 0.05% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,655.30. Silver hit a high of $30.90 then edged down to $30.215 and surged higher, but finished trading with a loss of 1.04%.

G10 & Precious Metals Currency Ranked Returns 1 Month (31/07/2012-31/08/2012) – Bloomberg

Gold is hovering today near the 4 ½ month high hit during the week as investors await the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at 1400 GMT from the Jackson Hole Symposium.  

Bullion will benefit as an inflation hedge if Bernanke announces more bond buying and additional monetary stimulus measures for the US economy. However, there is the real possibility that Bernanke merely hints at more QE again today prior to launching QE in September. 

Bernanke is likely to wait for the August US jobs data due next week and use that as the reason to announce further QE and money printing measures at the Fed’s policy meeting on September 12-13.

Bernanke merely hinting at such measures today could result in a bout of risk off that sends equities lower and the precious metals lower – in the short term.

Gold has been gradually trending higher over the traditionally weak summer months. It is on track for a nearly 3% gain in August (see table above), continuing its 3rd consecutive month of gradual gains. This sets gold up for a strong few months ahead in the traditionally stronger autumn months.

Silver surged 9% in August and is also well positioned for the autumn months when it tends to move higher with gold. The gold silver ratio at 53 remains favourable to silver and we believe it could revert to levels closer to 30 again in the coming weeks and again outperform gold.

Combine an inflation adjusted high gold at $2,400/oz by a gold silver ratio of 30 to 1 and one gets a silver price of $80/oz which remains quite possible in 2013. 

The mining tragedy and ongoing serious difficulties in the mining sector in South Africa saw platinum rise 6.4% while palladium was 4.8% higher.

The Norwegian krone was the strongest fiat currency in August while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars and Japanese yen all came under pressure.

G10 & Precious Metals Currency Ranked Returns YTD (30/12/2011-31/08/2012) – Bloomberg

August strong gains for the precious metals mean that gold, silver and platinum are now respectively 6%, 9.7% and 8.5% higher year to date.

Palladium remains the laggard and remains down 4.7% year to date.

(Bloomberg) — Economist Gartman Swaps Gold in Yen for Gold in Euros, Dollars
Economist Dennis Gartman said he’s swapping his gold position priced in yen for the metal priced in dollars and euros.

He is “remaining bullish of gold generally, but shifting our currency exposure,” he said today in his daily Gartman Letter.

(Bloomberg) — Turkey July Trade Gap Narrowed on Slowing Economy, Iran Gold
Turkey’s July trade deficit shrank 14 percent from a year earlier to $7.9 billion after a slowing economy crimped demand for imports, and exports of precious metals and stones to Iran surged.

The deficit narrowed from $9.2 billion in July last year, the statistics office in Ankara said on its website today. It exceeded a $7.7 billion median estimate of six economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Imports fell 1.5 percent to $20.8 billion and exports climbed 8.5 percent to $12.9 billion.

Demand for imports last year widened the trade deficit to a record, helping push the lira down 18 percent against the dollar, the biggest decline among global currencies. July was the ninth month that the deficit narrowed, after the central bank raised interest rates to slow the economy and put an end to the import boom.

The lira strengthened 0.2 percent to 1.8225 per dollar at 10:31 a.m. in Istanbul.

Exports of precious metals and stones to Iran surged to $1.8 billion in July from $42,000 a year ago. That trade has expanded after sanctions made it harder for Iranians to make transactions in foreign currencies, while inflation and the rial’s slide have boosted demand for gold in Iran.

The overall trade deficit in the first seven months of the year declined 20 percent to $50.7 billion, the agency said. The share of goods sold to the European Union fell to 34 percent from 37 percent in June and 48 percent a year ago. 

(Bloomberg) — Gold Producers May Benefit From Rally in Gold Price, SocGen Says
Additional QE measures may be announced in mid-Sept. so there may be further upside to gold price, Societe Generale says in note.

●Forecasts avg. $1,700/oz for 3Q, avg. $1,760/oz in 4Q: SocGen

●Disappointing performance of the equities is largely due to rising operating costs (labor and energy), higher capital costs and greater political risk: SocGen

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Gold heads for third monthly rise; Bernanke speech eyed – Reuters

Gold rises ahead of Bernanke speech – Market Watch

European shares edge down as Bernanke speech looms – Reuters

Crop Traders Extend Bull Run as Rain Comes Too Late – Bloomberg

Time for eurozone to reach for the gold reserves? – Financial Times

Video: Should the U.S. Return to the Gold Standard? – Bloomberg

Debunking the biggest conspiracy theories in finance – Financial Post

Auguries—Plus ça change – Resource Clips

Gold standard: Could it return in the US? – BBC

Mark OByrne


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