ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (via MarketWatch) -- A record 130 million voters are predicted to head to the polls Tuesday. The bad news: 65 million, roughly 50% of all voters, will be miffed, mad at, angry with, even hate the new president ... no matter who wins! Half against Obama, half against McCain. Either way, half of America will be angry, for at least four years. And that 50% will get even angrier as the recession deepens, sweeping aside all the grand upbeat promises of the campaign. Think things are bad now? Just wait, they'll get far worse before a recovery. Washington's in hock $11 trillion. Next, pile on all the gluttonous bailout billions and lost revenues and soon we'll be pushing $15 trillion even $20 trillion as this global meltdown spreads. Worse yet: All that debt's guaranteed to force new taxes and huge cutbacks, no matter what the winner promised. Last week I predicted this dark future, a "Great Global Depression" by 2011. Fortunately, there are still optimists out there. See previous Paul B. Farrell. For example: In a story in the latest Newsweek, "Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue: The Scary Challenges Facing the Next President on Day One," Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "Opportunity: America's Moment to Alter History's Course," had this warning for the next president: "This is not the world you've been discussing on the campaign trail," that was a "caricature." But he added, the "American people are ready to be leveled with" -- even ready for the pain of moving in a bold new direction. After warning of domestic dangers in his Newsweek "Memorandum to the President Elect," New York's Mayor Michael Bloomberg hit a high note about the future: "This is a competition we should relish, because we continue to enjoy all sorts of advantages: the best universities, the most advanced factories and health care, the most entrepreneurial workers and the best quality of life. But like a champion who has gotten complacent and sloughed off on workouts, the federal government -- paralyzed by partisan gridlock and special-interest pandering -- has let America slip out of top fighting form." McCain? Obama? The 535 members of Congress? Plus 42,000 special-interest lobbyists? Maybe they'll "level with" you. Don't count it. Besides, it doesn't matter. Campaign's over. "They" got the power. For the next four years the only person you can control is you. Try shifting into survival mode. What if you're stranded on a mountain climb in a storm? Marooned on a desert island? Lost in a jungle? Shipwrecked, drifting in the Pacific? For the next four years! It's not "you versus them." Not "you versus nature." Surviving is "you versus you." Laurence Gonzales has been researching how people behave in accidents for 35 years, and he tells us in "Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why." He discovered "an eerie uniformity in the way people survive seemingly impossible circumstances. Decades and sometimes centuries apart, separated by culture, geography, race, language, and tradition, the most successful survivors -- those who practice what I call 'deep survival' -- go through the same patterns of thought and behavior, the same transformation and spiritual discovery, in the course of keeping themselves alive. Not only that but it doesn't seem to matter whether they are surviving being lost in the wilderness or battling cancer, whether they're struggling through divorce or facing a business catastrophe -- the strategies remain the same." And we are clearly facing a historic political and economic catastrophe today, so listen closely: We can adapt Gonzales' incredible "12 Rules of Adventure" as a road map for Americans, especially investors, in the uncharted waters ahead for four years with the new president. Yes, he calls it an adventure: "Survival should be thought of as a journey, a vision quest of the sort that Native Americans have had as a rite of passage for thousands of years. Once you're past the precipitating event -- you're cast away at sea or told you have cancer -- you have been enrolled in one of the oldest schools in history. Here are a few things I've learned that can help you pass the final exam." The 12 tips that will work if you want to avoid a deep depression, both personally and as a nation: 1. Attitude: 'perceive and believe' Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts "the worst is yet to come," with stocks going over a cliff, along with currencies, next year.
Rollover is the story of faded Hollywood siren Jane Fonda who inherits a multi-million dollar company after her powerful bank president husband is murdered. While trying to find her dead love's killer, she runs his corporation with the help of charming banker Kris Kristofferson in the weeks before a worldwide currency and financial collapse. It was the 1981 movie Jane Fonda "got made" after her exploration of the dangers of nuclear power in the "China Syndrome" back in 1979. She was driving to tell the story of real money - gold and how people throughout the world value gold as real money while most Americans and people in western societies don't understand gold and have forgotten its importance and value. The plot line is about wealthy Arab investors not rolling over their certificates of deposits (CDs) in American banks and buying gold in order to hedge themselves against a fall in the dollar and paper currencies ... and what the loss of those foreign investments means to the financial establishment in New York and the international financial and monetary system. Rollover: Financial Apocalypse This movie was a "financial thriller" and there are not many of these movies made. Movies need bank financing, and banks usually won't finance anything that makes them look bad or stupid. They show "It’s a Wonderful Life" with Jimmy Stewart on TV only once a year now because it shows "run on the bank" at the Bailey Savings and Loan - not something the financial establishment wants Americans to even think about.
It's only Thursday and the Treasury has gone to the credit markets for $194 Billion so far this week for short term paper alone. Let's say they only borrow another $6 Billion tomorrow and end up at 200 Billion. Let's do the math. 200 Billion times 52 weeks is ..........$10 Trillion 400 Billion Dollars. This coincidentally equals the amount of the current national debt.
Government bailouts of the financial system will destroy the dollar, euro and sterling because of hyperinflation, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche told CNBC. But Todd Everts, president & CEO of Wall Street Global, disagreed. "The privatization of the banks is the first step down the road to hyperinflation," Hennecke said Monday.
Snippet from CBS's 60 minutes special on the the problems facing Wall Street. Worth watching as it focuses on some of the less-mentioned causes of the financial crisis, including the role of Credit-Default-Swaps, which were sold alongside the subprime mortgage securities (CDOs) as a way to minimise risk.
The New York Times have an interesting interactive diagram showing the losses that Wall St. have sustained over the last year*. As techcrunch put it: The collapse of so many major financial institutions in the past year, and over the past few days especially, is hard to fathom in its enormity. Sometimes you need a good visual to put things in perspective.
Few are aware that America may be on the brink of a financial meltdown. I.O.U.S.A. explores the country's shocking current fiscal condition and ways to avoid a national economic disaster.
Anyone out there have a similar graph for the UK?
Small to medium enterprises are the life blood of modern economies. In Ireland for example, up to 56% of the national workforce is employed in by Small to Medium Enterprises, that is to say companies that employ less the 250 employees and would include local industries and mom and pop business outfits. From the United States to Germany and beyond small to medium enterprises are responsible for a large component a countries transactions, employment, provision of goods and services and general day to day activities and are critical to the health of any economy. Given the increasingly uncertain economic climate critical questions must be asked – How can these critical and indigenous industries survive a rapid economic contraction – can they react to a swift fall off in demand for goods and services; do they have the management skills and Management Information Systems to not only recognise the problems but be able to formulate a cohesive response; how robust are their finances; how flexible are their employees? Concerns are growing that with the economic success enjoyed by many countries over the past ten years we have inadvertently created a weak and desperately soft underbelly – That is to say we have forgotten how to manage our business competently. Many small businesses have grown lazy and despondent and lack the management skills needed to properly navigate their business through difficult times.
Browsing through digg this morning I notice an article titled 9 ways you can take advantage of this "terrible" economy.It's currently riding high in the digg popularity stakes with just shy of 1000 diggs. It is, I think, a great example of what I choose to call The lalalalalalalalalala Effect - named after the sound one must make
From Wikipedia: Bank runs first appeared as part of cycles of credit expansion and its subsequent contraction. In the 16th century onwards, English goldsmiths issuing promissory notes suffered severe failures due to bad harvests plummeting parts of the country into famine and unrest.
The Bank of International Settlements, which seems to be the only institution that tracks the derivatives market, has recently reported that global outstanding derivatives have reached 1.14 quadrillion dollars: $548 Trillion in listed credit derivatives plus $596 trillion in notional/OTC derivatives. Yes, that is Quadrillion. One and 15 zeroes!
Early evening on the April 14th 1912 and a passenger on the first class deck of the Titanic would be, no doubt, enjoying the opulence of their surroundings, and the wealth that the British Empire had created. More recently, the “Celtic Tiger” has created new wealth in Ireland so that one can now enjoy a similar fine dining experience as the passengers of the Titanic as the menus show. Yet, we know that the very next night it all lay at the bottom of the Atlantic and no amount of Edwardian engineering could save the ship. One of the key lessons learnt from the Titanic tragedy was that there weren’t enough lifeboats for all the passengers. Today, we are in the midst of a Global crisis and potentially face a new breakdown in the established world order. Just as the death of Queen Victoria in January 1901 at the peak of the British Empire was followed by two World Wars and the emergence of the United States as the dominant Global Hegemonic Power, many commentators such as Paul Kennedy in his bestseller The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, are claiming that Global Hegemony is in the process of shifting. It is possible if not probable that even within our lifetimes, this power will shift east to China or India and just like the situation faced by Great Britain at the turn of the Twentieth Century there is nothing the United States can do about it. This time it isn’t Edwardian engineering that is failing to save us, but financial engineering. Of course nobody knows for sure how events will play out or if we are heading for a recession or even a depression.
It might not be morning again in America but Bush hopes to wake up the economy via his Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. The stimulant – pumping more than $152 billion (or about 1% GDP) into the economy via tax rebate cheques - will start arriving in the mailboxes of Americans over the next three weeks. The plans proponents are optimistic. Hank Paulson, in a speech confirming that no second stimulus plan would be undertaken, believes the $152-billion stimulus plan could create 500,000 jobs this year. Americans would have to spend their money wisely for the plan to have maximum impact. But what if the rebate money is already owed?
"We know we're already in negative equity," said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator. She bought a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in the Dublin suburbs with her fiancé, Paul Colgan, in May 2006, at the peak of the market. They paid €365,000, or $575,000 - at least $100,000 more than it would fetch today. The bad news regarding the American housing market continue apace. BusinessWeek are reporting that Existing Home Sales Drop for Seventh Straight Month with the national median existing home price dropping 7.7% from a year earlier. That a bubble has burst is clear. What is not so clear is how much of the contagion has spread worldwide.
The London Independent leads with the headline "The Great Depression" today. 1.1 million Ohio residents alone recieve food stamps, nearly 10% of the Ohio population, and more are elegible. ...and this is no April Fools.
Weekly Markets Precious Metals - UBS on Swiss Buying; Rothschild; Strong Demand in Middle East; HSBC on Seasonality Oil - Above $60 Again Commodities - Strength Continues Currencies - Berlusconi's Antics; USD Crisis Bonds - Yield Curve Flattens Stocks - DOW & Gold 35 year performance in % terms Property - UK housing slowdown affecting consumption
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