Gold and silver closed higher yesterday (+0.45% and +0.65%) after S&P, somewhat belatedly, cut its outlook for the US from stable to negative. While the move seemed to surprise some, many market participants have been warning that this was inevitable for some time.
Concerns that the sovereign debt crisis may be entering a new phase and the risk of contagion has seen peripheral eurozone bonds fall sharply and the euro fall against major currencies and gold today.
Gold and silver have reached new all-time and 31-year record highs in trading in London this morning.
Gold is tentatively higher against the euro but mixed against other currencies, while silver is higher again in most currencies. Both probed upward this morning and are exhibiting signs that they may push higher prior to a much anticipated correction.
Stocks are higher in Europe after gains in Asia despite losses on Wall Street yesterday. Gold and silver are showing tentative gains after 1% declines yesterday. Gold is particularly strong in yen terms as the yen has weakened against all 16 of its major peers (see cross currency tables). China’s yuan climbed to a 17-year high versus the dollar but is lower against the precious metals.
Gold is marginally lower in all currencies today, except sterling, after UK retail sales plunged the most on record in March due to deepening inflation. Consumer’s finances in the UK and internationally are being negatively impacted by food and energy inflation showing the UK’s vulnerability to a double dip recession and stagflation. Gold rose 0.5% in sterling over the £900/oz mark again.
Gold and silver rose to new record nominal highs (all time and 31-year respectively) in Asian trading overnight. Both have given up earlier gains with profit taking being cited. Cash silver surged nearly 3% in Asia to $41.9525 an ounce, a new 31 year high, before trading at $41.31 an ounce.
Gold and silver reached new record all time and 31-year highs respectively again yesterday and this morning - both nominal highs. Silver has surged to a new 31-year nominal high of $40.28/oz and may now target next resistance at $50/oz - the 1980 nominal high.
Gold’s two consecutive days of nominal record highs have seen some profit taking as oil is flat, the dollar is marginally higher and the euro has fallen. The ECB’s 0.25 % interest rate hike may lead to further profit taking today but rising interest rates in an increasingly inflationary environment will be positive for gold as it was from 1965 to 1981 (see charts below).
In trading in London this morning, gold reached a new record nominal high ($1,460.92/oz) and silver a new 31-year nominal high ($39.63/oz) as investors bought the precious metals to hedge deepening sovereign debt risk (in the EU but also in the US with the threat of a federal budget shutdown), geopolitical risk and deepening inflation. Brent crude reached $123.00 a barrel this morning and looks set to challenge the high seen in July 2008 of $145.49.
Gold and silver have consolidated after yesterday’s gains although gains have been made in the Japanese yen which has fallen due to a growing realisation that the nuclear disaster is far from over and will pose massive challenges to the Japanese economy and challenges to the global economy.
The positive momentum of gold and silver continue with both higher in European trade as oil prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions in oil rich nations and the euro has fallen on Eurozone debt concerns.
Gold and silver have consolidated on yesterday's gains as inflation, geopolitical and eurozone debt concerns support. Silver has risen above its 31-year record closing price of yesterday and looks set to target new record nominal intraday highs above $38.16/oz. 'Poor man's gold' is set for a record nominal quarterly close which will be bullish technically and set silver up to target the psychological resistance at $40/oz and then the nominal high of $50.35/oz . Silver's record quarterly close was $32.20/oz on December 31st, 1979.
Gold and, particularly, silver are higher in European trading, especially in Japanese yen, which has come under pressure again today. The initial 'repatriation funds' yen rally in the days after the natural and nuclear disaster has abated. Gold is again close to record nominal highs in yen (119,000/oz) and other currencies. The outlook for the yen is not good due to massive fiscal and demographic challenges, zero percent interest rates and ongoing currency debasement - none of which will be helped by the nuclear disaster.
Gold and silver are lower again today with short term momentum traders taking advantage of recent weakness and capping of the gold price at record nominal highs. Options expiry often sees gold and silver prices fall but recover sharply within days of expiry and this is likely to be the pattern again after yesterday's expiration.
Gold and silver have fallen in Asian and early European trading, despite global uncertainty leading to weakness in equity and bond markets. Support is likely to come from eurozone debt concerns, geopolitical risk and the deepening nuclear crisis in Japan - the true extent of which remains unacknowledged.
Gold and silver remain supported by continuing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation, the European sovereign debt crisis, conflict in Libya and the wider Middle East and the nuclear disaster in Japan are all factors which will likely result in gold reaching new record nominal highs in all currencies sooner rather than later.
Markets have recovered somewhat from the recent sharp sell offs despite the worsening nuclear situation in Japan. Gold and silver have made very tentative gains from the falls seen yesterday as commodity and equity markets (and the Nikkei in particular) have stabilised somewhat after the recent sharp falls.
Japan's nuclear crisis has deepened and we deeply regret to say that there is now the real possibility of a nuclear catastrophe. Investor panic has set in with the Nikkei down over 16.5% in two days and the Topic index down by 17% - its worst two-day loss since the 1987 Wall Street stock market crash.
The world is still coming to terms with the terrible tragedy in Japan. A second explosion at the Fukushima nuclear reactor overnight and Pentagon reports of radiation being detected 60 miles away from the reactor suggest widening nuclear contamination leading to concerns of a nuclear catastrophe.
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