Gold fell for the eighth straight session yesterday to have the longest losing streak since June 2006 (silver broke its losing streak). Gold is clearly oversold in the short term and due a bounce. The question is whether the bounce will lead to another challenge of resistance at $1,000/oz sooner than most expect or whether the bounce is a prelude to further weakness which could see gold fall to as low as support between $850/oz and $880/oz.
The global macro remains as supportive as ever with the Bank of England and the ECB set to slash interest rates closer to 0% today and the BoE set to commence quantitative easing.
The unprecedented challenge facing the global financial system is the solvency of large institutions and increasingly of the system itself as the shadow banking system poisons the well. This is leading to a continuing unavailability of credit and this is the challenge, rather than the cost of credit. Indebted consumers and businesses’ financial pain may be alleviated in the short term but quantitative easing and printing money could lead to debasement of the world’s leading fiat currencies and to very significant inflation in the coming months.
We live in unprecedented financial and economic times and global macroeconomic and systemic risk is extremely high and set to remain high for the foreseeable future.