Daily Market Update

Gold Prices Likely To Go Higher In 2019 After 4% Gain So Far In Q4

by Frank Holmes of USFunds.com

Gold traders appear excited about gold again as stocks are on pace for their worst year since 2008, and their worst December since 1931.

Bullish bets on the yellow metal outnumbered bearish ones for the week ended December 11, resulting in the first instance of net positive contracts since July, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.

As many of you know, December has historically been a strong month for stocks. But fears of a slowdown in global growth, rising interest rates and the U.S.-China trade war have prompted many investors to pare down their stocks in favor of gold, often perceived as a safe haven in times of economic and financial instability.

Now, as we head into 2019, gold “is poised to take the bull-market baton from the dollar and stocks,” writes Bloomberg  Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone. Although the U.S. dollar has been strengthening since September, which would ordinarily dent the price of gold, the yellow metal has shown “divergent strength on the back of increasing equity-market volatility,” McGlone adds.

Gold and Metal Miners Have Crushed the Market

So far this quarter, gold has crushed the market, returning more than 5 percent as of December 18, compared to negative 11.9 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Gold miners, though, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, have been the top performer, climbing nearly 12 percent.

We could see even higher gold and gold equity prices next year and beyond, but the dollar will likely need to come down. For that to happen, the Federal Reserve will need to call time out on its quarterly rate hikes. Many industry leaders now support this idea, including Jeffrey Gundlach and Stanley Druckenmiller, not to mention President Donald Trump.

“I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make another mistake,” Trump warned in a tweet Tuesday morning. “Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!”

The WSJ editorial Trump refers to makes the case that “economic and financial signals suggest [Fed Chairman Jerome Powell] should pause,” a line the president has been repeating for months now.

 

Investment Case For Gold In Next 5 Years Is Attractive

Looking ahead five years, the investment case for gold and gold miners gets even more attractive. London-based precious metals consultancy firm Metals Focus projects a gradual increase in gold consumption between now and 2023, supported by strong jewelry demand and physical investment.

“From late 2019 onwards,” Metals Focus analysts write, “we expect a bull market in gold to emerge, which in our view will remain in place for the next two to three years.”

Greenspan Urges Investors to “Run for Cover”

In an interview this week with CNN, former Federal Reserve Chairman (and gold fan) Alan Greenspan urged investors to “run for cover,” as he doesn’t see the market moving much higher than they are now.

“It would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here, and then take off,” Greenspan said.

I believe the best way to “run for cover” is with gold and short-term, tax-free municipal bonds. As for gold, I always recommend a 10 percent weighting, with 5 percent in bullion, coins and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

Courtesy of Frank Holmes and USFunds.com

 

CHRISTMAS SCHEDULE

We will be closed from 24th of December (next Monday), and reopen again on the 2nd of January (Wednesday). Our last trading day will be on the 21st of December (tomorrow) and insured deliveries will begin again in the first week of January 2019.

We wish all our subscribers & clients a Happy Christmas and a Healthy & Wealthy 2019

 


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News and Commentary

Gold settles higher as Fed lifts a key interest rate (MarketWatch.com)

Stocks Retreat on Fears of Fed Mistake; Oil Slumps: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Asia Stock Carnage Deepens as Hopes Fizzle With Policy Updates (Bloomberg.com)

Gold steadies, Fed signals ‘some’ rate hikes for 2019 (Reuters.com)

Fed lifts rates, now sees ‘some further’ hikes ahead (Reuters.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Gold Bulls Just Regained the Upper Hand (USFunds.com)

$7.9 trillion pile of negative-yielding debt is growing fast (Bloomberg.com)

China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fall to lowest since May 2017 (Bloomberg.com)

Investors Should ‘Run For Cover’ – Greenspan Warns after Yellen, IMF, BIS Warnings (CNBC.com)

Alan Greenspan Warns Investors: Bad Economic Times Are Looming (Fortune.com)

Jarring FedEx Outlook Cut Suggests “Severe Global Recession” (ZeroHedge.com)

France and the Crisis of Democracies (FPCS.es)

Brexit Bulletin: The Predictions Edition (Bloomberg.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

19 Dec: USD 1,248.60, GBP 986.77 & EUR 1,094.65 per ounce
18 Dec: USD 1,248.80, GBP 987.43 & EUR 1,096.70 per ounce
17 Dec: USD 1,239.10, GBP 982.61 & EUR 1,093.13 per ounce
14 Dec: USD 1,239.15, GBP 983.39 & EUR 1,096.90 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 1,244.45, GBP 982.87 & EUR 1,093.62 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 1,244.75, GBP 993.31 & EUR 1,098.24 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Dec: USD 14.65, GBP 11.58 & EUR 12.84 per ounce
18 Dec: USD 14.66, GBP 11.55 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
17 Dec: USD 14.60, GBP 11.55 & EUR 12.86 per ounce
14 Dec: USD 14.58, GBP 11.61 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 14.68, GBP 11.60 & EUR 12.90 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 14.66, GBP 11.68 & EUR 12.93 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Everything Bubble Started Bursting In 2018 – GoldCore Video
– Global Financial System Is ‘Unstable’ and Risk Of ‘Clearing System Seizure’, BIS Warns
– Gold Flowing From West To East and Now To Goldman Sachs
– Brexit Risk Sees Gold Rise To Test EUR 1,100 Per Ounce
– Yellen Warns Another Financial Crisis Is Brewing
– Gold Krugerrand Coin Worth $1,200 Donated To Charity Again
– EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom
– Gold and Silver Gained 2% and 3% Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5%
– Irish Central Bank Refuses To Discuss Gold Reserves In Bank of England Vaults

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Mark O'Byrne
Executive Director

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