GoldCore Update: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risk Sees Increasing Risk Aversion

Gold
Gold fell nearly 2% yesterday as talk of China curbing lending (raising the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve) saw traders take profits. Gold range traded in Asian trade before rising to currently trade at $1,134.00/oz at 1000 GMT. In euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €782/oz and £698/oz respectively. The German economy shrank by 5% last year, its deepest recession since World War II. This makes the euro vulnerable to a correction – especially given the risk of insolvency to some other EU members. Gold’s resistance at €800 per ounce could be overcome soon.

Concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy affecting Asian economies and the global economy led to risk aversion which saw oil and commodity prices and commodity currencies down on the day; this contributed to gold’s weakness. Government bonds benefitted despite growing concerns that the coming massive issuance may affect their safe haven status. This will likely enhance gold’s safe haven status and contribute to continuing robust gold demand.

South Korean intervention in the foreign exchange market to depreciate the won signals the continuing risk of competitive currency devaluations in Asia and internationally, as seen in Hugo Chavez’s massive devaluation yesterday.

Tensions with Iran remain escalated and Iran has accused the US and Israel of assassinating a leading Iranian nuclear scientist. Macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remain real and present and should see gold remain well bid above support at $1,080/oz.

Silver
Silver reached as low as $18.19/oz overnight but it has recovered since. Silver is currently trading at $18.36/oz, €12.68/oz and £11.30/oz.

Platinum Group Metals
Platinum is trading at $1,578/oz and palladium is currently trading at $427/oz. Rhodium is at $2,750/oz.

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Mark OByrne

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