Brexit’s Safe Haven Is a Dangerous Place

Gilts are on a tear as investors escape U.K. stocks and the pound. But a no-deal Brexit or a Corbyn government would soon change their status.

By Mark Gilbert  and Marcus Ashworth (via Bloomberg.com)

British investors have been fleeing their domestic stock market in droves all year, and everyone and their dog lined up to sell sterling on Thursday as the tally of resignations from Theresa May’s Brexit-plagued administration mounted. Gilts have become the haven of choice for those unable or unwilling to scrap all their U.K. exposure. But that search for safety could backfire if the political chaos brings down Prime Minister Theresa May.

The real and present danger to her and her draft Brexit agreement increases the risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal. That wouldn’t be good for anybody, including U.K. sovereign bondholders.

Because of all of the political uncertainty, British equities — particularly those lacking the buffer of big exports to cushion the blow — will no doubt continue to suffer.

Market Laggard

U.K. stocks have performed worse than their peers

Indeed, domestic investors who’ve bailed out of British stocks this year have dodged a bullet.

Love Don’t Live Here Any More
U.K. investors continue to favor overseas equity markets

While Brexit isn’t done yet, it’s already having direct economic effects, including making British consumers increasingly nervous. Retail sales fell by 0.5 percent last month, figures published on Thursday show, contradicting economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.2 percent. So it’s no surprise that the pound is suffering too against the dollar. It was nursing its biggest one-day drop in more than two years at its nadir on Thursday, leaving it looking more like an emerging-market currency.

 

News and Commentary

Gold ticks lower to $1220, though downside remains limited (FXStreet.com)

Global stocks push higher, dollar sapped by rate hike uncertainty (Reuters.com)

Asian markets quiet as U.S.-China trade tensions linger (MarketWatch.com)

Palladium zooms toward parity with gold for first time in 16 years (Reuters.com)

Labour gains three-point lead as May’s Brexit plan hits buffers (TheGuardian.com)

Gold advances as risk appetite falls on Brexit concerns (FXStreet.com)

Market Tactics For A Golden Smile (24HGold.com)

Global Silver demand likely to fall for the third consecutive year in 2018 (ScrapRegister.com)

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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

16 Nov: USD 1,215.80, GBP 948.93 & EUR 1,073.07 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 1,210.60, GBP 948.26 & EUR 1,072.71 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,201.45, GBP 927.04 & EUR 1,066.05 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 1,207.05, GBP 940.05 & EUR 1,072.34 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

16 Nov: USD 14.29, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 14.13, GBP 11.02 & EUR 12.49 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 13.97, GBP 10.80 & EUR 12.39 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 14.16, GBP 11.00 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold and Silver Rise As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks
– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London
– Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit

Mark O'Byrne

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