by Brian Delaney of Secure Investments

Gold is gaining momentum after a 5-year consolidation and is set to challenge the 2011 highs some time next year. Once gold clears $2,000, a powerful bull market should drive the gold price meaningfully higher.

Gold has been an unloved asset class for years but that is about to change. I am expecting a bear market in equities and rising yields as a consequence of years of central bank QE.

A traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds will not protect investors during the next downturn. I expect gold will replace bonds as the go-to hedge.

Last Friday, I reviewed the performance of US equities, bonds and USD in the run up to the 1987 stock market crash to see if there are any similarities to today’s markets.

From 1981 to 1986, US equities and bonds went on a tear. The S&P 500 rallied +237% from 1982 to 1987, while bonds surged +84% higher. The USD ran up +68% and then collapsed -42%. The combination of an overvalued stock market, overly bullish investor sentiment, a collapsing currency and automatic trading programmes in place at the time resulted in the panic now known as Black Monday.

Today, stocks are more expensive, debt levels are much higher across the board and interest rates are much lower too. The US stock market has rallied +167% from 2012 to 2018. US Treasuries added almost +40% from 2013 to 2016 before falling -20% over the last two years. The USD added +32% from 2013 to 2017 before declining -15% over the last 15 months.

Investors with a bullish bias should be rooting for both US Treasuries and USD to stabilize. If the USD and Treasuries continue to fall, the stock market will surely follow and the decline could accelerate at a moment’s notice.