India Gold Imports To Rise 5% To Over 900 Tonnes In 2013


Today’s AM fix was USD 1,279.75, EUR 975.79 and GBP 842.00 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,284.25, EUR 977.29 and GBP 845.68 per ounce.

Gold fell $16.70 or 1.29% yesterday and closed at $1,275.70/oz. Silver dropped $0.70 or 3.5% and closed at $19.32. 

Gold rose in Asian trading after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the central bank may start scaling back bond purchases later this year, but he left plenty of doubt in the minds of market participants. Today, Bernanke testifies to the U.S. Senate Banking committee.


Gold Prices/Fixes/Rates/Vols – (Bloomberg)

Gold remains in backwardation signifying a very tight physical market and premiums in China remain high at nearly $30 per ounce with gold trading at $1,308.27/oz on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) this morning. 

This would ordinarily would lead to a rally but the COMEX paper players remain dominant for the moment.

Gold briefly spiked over $1,300/oz yesterday after Bernanke said the Fed’s monetary policy isn’t on a "preset course" & starts of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell sharply leading to renewed concerns about the U.S. housing market.

However, gold was capped at the $1,300/oz level where aggressive selling was seen on the COMEX and then gold fell from $1,297/oz to $1,278/oz quite swiftly. Analysts were confused as to the reason for the falls and they came despite a lack of market catalyst.

Despite much negative comment after the recent sharp decline in gold imports into India, India is set to see higher gold imports in 2013 than in 2012.

India’s gold imports are set to fall in the second half as the government curbs shipments in a misguided attempt to prevent a further devaluation of the rupee.

However, if current trends continue, India is set to see full year imports rise from 860 tons in 2012 to 902 tons in 2013 or a gain of nearly 5%.  

Inbound shipments may drop 22% to 372.5 metric tonnes in the six months through December from 478 tonnes a year earlier, according to a median of estimates from 10 importers, jewelers, analysts and trade groups compiled by Bloomberg. 

The full-year import estimates of 902 tons this year from 860 tons in 2012 are according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the World Gold Council and the All India Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation. 


Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Store of wealth buyers throughout Asia and the Middle East,  from Turkey to Dubai to India and to China, crowded retail outlets and bullion dealers to buy jewelry, coins and bars in April after the precious metal posted the biggest two-day loss in three decades. Demand has fallen from the record levels seen then but remains very robust.

As speculators in the west liquidate paper gold positions, the wealthy, middle classes and poor of the Middle East and Asia continue to buy gold jewellery, coins and bars as a store of wealth to protect primarily from the risk of currency devaluations.

NEWS

All Gold In Universe Could Come From the Collisions of Neutron Stars – Smithsonian

Gold Trades Little Changed as Investors Weigh Bernanke Comments – Bloomberg

Gold ticks up, Fed keeps up pressure with stimulus view – Reuters

Study shows crashing stars made Earth’s gold – Associated Press

COMMENTARY
China: "The Greatest Investment Bubble Known To Man" – The Telegraph

Oops, We Did It Again: Banks and Houses Dominate the Recovery – Dollar Collapse

Precious Metals Market Manipulation Round Table – Wall Street for Main Street

Avoid Paper GLD. Own "The Real Thing" – Money Morning

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

Mark O'Byrne

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