LBMA Consensus: Outlook for Gold Positive Despite Short Term Nervousness

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,293.75, EUR 955.93 and GBP 797.92 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,332.25, EUR 983.14 and GBP 819.85 per ounce

Gold fell $37.90 or 2.85% yesterday, closing at $1,289.90/oz. Silver slid $0.49 or 2.26%, closing at $21.18. Platinum fell $19.40 or 1.4% to $1,379.40/oz, while palladium dropped $5.03 or 0.7% to $716.47/oz.

Gold bounced back from an 8 week low in London this morning as investors mulled over the U.S. government shutdown, debt ceiling deadline of Oct. 17th and how it will affect the recovering economy and the Fed’s need to taper. 

A recent Bloomberg survey of economists are now leaning to December as the first time the Fed will cut its $85 billion/month bond purchases. Gold is still being sought out as a safe haven although physical demand from India, the world’s largest consumer, is sluggish due to ongoing Sharadhs, which is an inauspicious fortnight in Hindu mythology for making new purchases. 

Yesterday, on the final day of the two and a half day LBMA gold conference, there was a consensus among participants and delegates that while there was a risk of short term weakness in gold, the medium and long term outlook is very positive due to the very uncertain economic outlook.

$1,050/oz was identified as the likely level of support if gold weakens again in the short term – especially if gold falls below support at $1,200/oz. This was a possible scenario outlined in the closing session chaired by Dr Brian Lucey of Trinity College Dublin. 

However, there was a consensus that gold would go higher in the medium and long term and prices over $2,000/oz were cited as a strong possibility.

Central banks and many participants emphasised that gold’s importance was as a store of value and vital diversification in a foreign exchange, savings and investment portfolio.

The annual conference was organised by the LBMA. Headquartered in London and with a global membership base, the London Bullion Market Association or LBMA is the international trade association that represents the market for gold and silver bullion. Its members include the majority of the central banks that hold gold, private sector investors, mining companies, producers, refiners and fabricators.

This year the LBMA welcomed 727 people from 316 companies, a new conference record.

NEWS
LBMA Survey Predicts Gold at $1,405/Oz in November 2014 – Wall Street Journal

Gold hits 2-mth low on large sell order, hopes U.S. shutdown to end – Reuters

Gold Climbs From Eight-Week Low as Investors Weigh U.S. Shutdown – Bloomberg

Gold industry conference delegates predict bullion rally – Reuters

COMMENTARY
Fed Could Delay Tapering Until After December – Ludwig von Mises

Gold, silver extend losses on sluggish demand, global cues – The Economic Times

Comex Warehouse Gold Bullion: Price Moves Smell Desperation as Inventory Remains Thin – Jesse’s Café Américain

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

Mark O'Byrne

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