Monthly Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow

August and the summer are now over and investors and savers are now focusing on the autumnal months ahead. Stocks internationally had their worst August performance since 2001 and the ISEQ fell 7.2% in the month. Mounting concerns about the health of the economic recovery in Ireland, the US and internationally saw investors move into government bonds and gold. Some respite came due to the falling price of oil – oil was down 8.9%, its first monthly decline since May.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month 4.3% lower, while the S&P 500 was down 4.7%. The weak performance of equity markets was mirrored across the world’s major financial centres, with the Nikkei 225 down 7.5% and Germany’s Dax down 5.8%. Mining stocks on the FTSE helped it to only fall 0.6% in the month. With the S&P 500 index down 5.9% for the year and September being historically the worst month for stocks, traders are bracing for a continued downward bias.

Gold was up 5.6% in August thereby regaining the 5% losses seen in July. Importantly, from a technical perspective gold recorded a record (nominal) monthly high close (see chart below) which should see momentum traders continue "to make the trend their friend". This could result in June’s record high being breached again, possibly as soon as in September. Especially as safe haven demand for bullion internationally remains robust and Indian festival seasonal demand looks set to be healthy.

Gold – 30 days (Tick). Click on image to view full size

Gold is only a few dollars below the record daily high close ($1,258/oz)and record inter day high now ($1,265/oz) but it is important to remember that these record highs are nominal highs and gold remains  nearly half the more important record inflation adjusted high of $2,400/oz.  Gold is now up 14% so far in 2010 and looks set to have the 10th year of gradual appreciation (some 16% per annum in dollar terms).

The ECB keeping rates at a record low of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year highs.

Gold in USD – 5 Year (Monthly). Click on image to view full size

September can be the ‘cruelest month’ for stocks. Conversely, more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds, international equities, and gold.

Mark OByrne

Also on news-goldcore-com

Videos

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St Angelo

What we can Learn from the International Gold Market

Jim Rogers Interview 2022

Blog posts

Ross Geller inspires Bank of England policy

This morning the UK pound slumped as one of the world’s oldest central banks pressed hard on the panic button. The Bank of England was seen to be shouting ‘Pivot! Pivot! Pivaat!’ as they announced they would temporarily suspend their programme to sell gilts and will instead buy long-dated bonds.  In a statement, the bank […]

READ MORE

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St Angelo

Is the energy crisis something that can be resolved? Was it always inevitable? Will renewable energy make it all OK? Are Western financial policies to blame? All this and more in today’s The M3 Report! If you’re not already subscribed to GoldCoreTV then click here right now to make sure you’re all set to watch the fifth […]

READ MORE

Brace Yourself for the Impact

Fed’s message this week – higher rates, lower economic growth, higher unemployment. The Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting and the statement said that the committee anticipates further increases. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that the median projection is for a further 1.25% increase by yearend. […]

READ MORE

Featured

Rick Rule- Should You Invest In Gold 2022

READ MORE

Jim Rogers- The Worst Bear Market is Coming

READ MORE
Newsletter
Category
Archives
Popular

No posts available

Videos

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St Angelo

What we can Learn from the International Gold Market

Jim Rogers Interview 2022

Blog posts

Ross Geller inspires Bank of England policy

This morning the UK pound slumped as one of the world’s oldest central banks pressed hard on the panic button. The Bank of England was seen to be shouting ‘Pivot! Pivot! Pivaat!’ as they announced they would temporarily suspend their programme to sell gilts and will instead buy long-dated bonds.  In a statement, the bank […]

READ MORE

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St Angelo

Is the energy crisis something that can be resolved? Was it always inevitable? Will renewable energy make it all OK? Are Western financial policies to blame? All this and more in today’s The M3 Report! If you’re not already subscribed to GoldCoreTV then click here right now to make sure you’re all set to watch the fifth […]

READ MORE

Brace Yourself for the Impact

Fed’s message this week – higher rates, lower economic growth, higher unemployment. The Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting and the statement said that the committee anticipates further increases. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that the median projection is for a further 1.25% increase by yearend. […]

READ MORE

Featured

Rick Rule- Should You Invest In Gold 2022

READ MORE

Jim Rogers- The Worst Bear Market is Coming

READ MORE