Gold Markets were closed in New York yesterday and the action centred on London where gold sold off initially and tested support at $900 prior to rallying strongly and this strength has continued in Asian trading with gold rising above $910 per ounce. Silver traded similarly, testing support just below $17 and then bouncing; in Asian trading silver has risen above $17.20 per ounce. Commodities Surge and Burgeoning Inflation With commodity markets surging internationally, gold is very well supported and looks to be consolidating prior to challenging the recent highs and targetting $1,000 in the coming weeks. Oil is back above $96, wheat is up 90% in the last 6 weeks and the entire complex of base metals and soft commodities are showing strong gains. The rise in prices of commodities will take a few weeks to feed into the supply chain, affect the already embattled consumer and be reflected in inflation statistics. This is obviously very inflationary especially with the Federal Reserve expected to continue cutting interest rates and negative real interest rates in an increasingly stagflationary environment. Money supply growth in the U.S. continues to surge and the reconstituted U.S. money supply (M3) figures show a very inflationary 18% growth. Supply of Gold Decreasing Internationally Meanwhile supply continues to decline and the situation and outlook in South Africa continues to deteriorate and is seriously affecting the supply of gold and particularly platinum. South Africa and indeed most of the major gold producing countries are experiencing a decline in gold production. Indeed China is the only major gold producer in the world to have increased production last year.
Gold Gold was down $4.80 to $902.80 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver was down 12 cents to $17.10 per ounce. Gold has traded sideways to slightly up in Asia and early trading in Europe. Gold rose in British pounds and fell in euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $905 (down from $909.75). Gold fixed at £464.03 (up from £463.97) and €618.51 (down from €619.76). With U.S. markets closed, gold would be expected to have a quite day but recent volatility may continue especially with the deteriorating situation in South Africa seriously affecting the supply of gold and particularly platinum. Despite Bernanke’s poor outlook for the U.S. economy and the poor economic data (Michigan consumer sentiment fell to its lowest since 1992) last week, the dollar is up this morning. However, the dollar’s recent strength is likely to be short lived and the dollar is likely to weaken materially in the medium to long term in the coming weeks and months.
What's the Outlook for Gold, Silver? Gold has been one of the best performers of late, trading above $700 per troy ounce.
Weekly Markets Precious Metals - UBS on Swiss Buying; Rothschild; Strong Demand in Middle East; HSBC on Seasonality Oil - Above $60 Again Commodities - Strength Continues Currencies - Berlusconi's Antics; USD Crisis Bonds - Yield Curve Flattens Stocks - DOW & Gold 35 year performance in % terms Property - UK housing slowdown affecting consumption