Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain

Ignore election theory, this one’s too uncertain

  • This year’s election breaks the mould in a number of important ways
  • Markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House.
  • However, likely that uncertainty will drive markets for time-being
  • Polls might be victim to ‘the Bradley effect’
  • Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican.

For most of us this election is like nothing we have ever seen. Frank Holmes agrees , arguing that we need to, “Forget Everything You Know About Presidential Elections

“this year’s election breaks the mold in a number of important ways, it raises the question of how closely it will hew to past elections, at least where market reaction is concerned.”

Just with the candidates alone we are dealing with two unknowns:

“If [Clinton] pulls it off, she’ll become not only the first woman and first first lady to rise to the country’s highest office but also the first Democrat to succeed another two-term Democrat since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson in 1837.”

“…Meanwhile, if Donald Trump manages an upset, he will become the oldest person ever to take the oath of office and the first to transition directly from the business world to the presidency without any past experience as a high-ranking government official (like William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover) or military officer (like Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower). To Trump’s supporters and many others, of course, this is one of his main assets.”

Trump or Clinton winning the polls?

If Brexit has taught us anything it is that polls aren’t the be all and end all, and listening to them can lead to unexpected results. For Frank Holmes, polls ‘can often be misleading’ and he points to Brexit polls that suggested as much. He also refers to the ‘Bradley effect’:

“California polls gave L.A. mayor Tom Bradley a wide lead in the days leading up to the 1982 gubernatorial election, and yet he was roundly defeated. Known today as the “Bradley effect,” the accepted theory is that voters told pollsters they supported Bradley, an African-American, so as not to appear racist. But in the privacy of the voting booth, those same voters pulled the lever for his opponent.”

Holmes argues that we may now be seeing a ‘reverse Bradley effect’ where those polled do not want to admit their support for Donal Trump, “the least-liked person ever to run in U.S. history, followed closely by Hillary.”

However both Reuters and Bloomberg have disputed this in recent days. On Bloomberg this morning it was reported that as the majority of polls are online, those polled are unlikely to be embarrassed to admit their political leaning to a computer or their iPhone.

Polling is also proving an area of some debate when it comes to the swing voters, are there as many as are believed to be? Not in the medium to long-term, no. Support consistently remains the same. Reuters looked at a cross-section of polls and concluded that, “momentary swings disappear when we instead look at monthly averages. The larger slices of time show that the rapid swings in voters’ views always return to a rough equilibrium. In fact, there has not been any real change in Trump’s and Clinton’s relative position over the past three months.”

For those of us watching the polls and believing that this is all about swing voters, Ipsos has a word of warning for us, “Observers need to distinguish between whether voters are switching candidates or simply becoming more excited about their candidate of choice. For the candidates themselves, it means the sprint to the finish is about keeping their supporters fired up while demoralizing the other side’s base.”

Two ‘unknown’ candidates

Frank Holmes points to the rare situation we find ourselves, where neither candidate is seeking re-election, and how this creates uncertainty in the markets.

“…no incumbent’s name appears on the ballot. This is rarer than you might initially think. Since 1947, when the number of terms was limited to two, only five people have been elected twice and completed two full terms.”

This situation can make the electorate and markets even more nervous than were there an incumbent on the ticket.

“…markets are faced with the reality that someone new will be occupying the Oval Office soon, complete with a new cabinet, new agenda, new governing style and new policies…This uncertainty has historically given investors the jitters—even when they’re in favor of the incoming president.”

As Holmes argues, no matter how big a Trump supporter you are, you have to admit that Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican. This is a common theory.

For Simon Johnson, former Chief Economist at the IMF, “Investors in the stock market currently regard a Trump presidency as a relatively low-probability development. But, while the precise consequences of bad policies are always hard to predict, if investors are wrong and Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks – and a likely crash in the broader market.”

This echoes much of what Jim Rickards highlighted in an interview we brought to you a few weeks ago – you’re better to bet on a Trump win as the market’s are priced to see the opposite.

“it’s the policies that matter, not necessarily the party.”

Whilst voters might struggle to believe this, Holmes argues that data-ming shows that,“there is evidence that stocks have performed slightly better when a Democrat is president, especially when Congress is split, as it was during most of Barack Obama’s administration.”

Ultimately though, “markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House. So many other factors exert just as much, if not more, influence over market performance, including monetary policy, inflation/deflation and whether the country is at war or peace.”

Russell Jones, a partner at Llewellyn Consulting, told Al Jazeera this week that no matter who wins, history shows that “the populists very rarely get what they say they are going to deliver when they actually get into power” as the markets have a way of exerting their influence and discipline on  politicians.

Scott Wren, of Wells Fargo, agreed telling MarketWatch, “We believe there is only the slimmest of possibilities that the new president will be able to change the trajectory of the economy over the first 12 or 18 months that he or she is in office. The market knows this.”

Uncertainty looms no matter who wins

A recent World Economic Outlook paper from the IMF paper succinctly summarise the current zeitgeist that has driven much of these shock campaigns, “The U.K. vote to leave the European Union and the ongoing U.S. presidential election campaign have brought to the fore issues related to labor mobility and migration, global trade integration, and cross-border regulation. Institutional arrangements long in place are now potentially up for renegotiation.”

Regardless of who wins, these issues will not be put to bed and will be near impossible for the winning candidate to manage without protest, disruption and significant financial impact on the economy.

As with Brexit, the level of angst following the US election is unlikely to dissipate in the immediate aftermath, if at all. No matter if the polls are right or wrong, or who brings in the most disruptive policies regarding fiscal, monetary, trade etc. there are far greater uncertainties for both American citizens and on the world stage than there were if this election had taken place 8, 12, 16 years ago.

As we explained, recently, the heightened uncertainty and possible Trump win, “is an excellent opportunity for investors, particularly those who have an allocation to physical gold” we later explained the significant upside for the precious metal, and how gold may well be the only winner in this election.

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Bullion Tumbles With Haven Assets as FBI Hands Clinton a Boost (Bloomberg.com)

Trump Surge Sends Investors to Gold (FoxBusiness.com)

Gold slumps as dollar, stocks jump after FBI clears Clinton (Reuters.com)

Gold prices fall in Asia on U.S. politics, rate hike expectations (Investing.com)

Election-inspired stock market volatility is overblown (MarketWatch.com)

“If Trump is elected, the price could rise quite sharply…” said GoldCore (FinancialPost.com)

Tech is disrupting all before it – even democracy is in its sights – Guardian (TheGuardian.com)

Legend Says Bears Attacking Gold & Silver Markets May Get Torched Here (KingWorldNews.com)

How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way (Spiegel.de)

David Stockman warns both Trump and Clinton could lead to 25% sell-off (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 1,301.70, GBP 1,042.79 & EUR 1,172.57 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 1,293.00, GBP 1,040.61 & EUR 1,165.90 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 1,295.85, GBP 1,056.51 & EUR 1,169.76 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 1,284.40, GBP 1,048.58 & EUR 1,167.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.20, GBP 1,046.25 & EUR 1,163.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 1,265.90, GBP 1,042.47 & EUR 1,160.96 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
04 Nov: USD 18.30, GBP 14.65 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
03 Nov: USD 18.07, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.32 per ounce
02 Nov: USD 18.54, GBP 15.05 & EUR 16.70 per ounce
01 Nov: USD 18.24, GBP 14.91 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 14.59 & EUR 16.22 per ounce
28 Oct: USD 17.61, GBP 14.51 & EUR 16.13 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold may be the only winner in US elections
– The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
– Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
– Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
– Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro

janskoyles

Also on news-goldcore-com

Videos

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St. Angelo

What we can Learn from the International Gold Market

Jim Rogers Interview 2022

Blog posts

Ross Geller inspires Bank of England policy

This morning the UK pound slumped as one of the world’s oldest central banks pressed hard on the panic button. The Bank of England was seen to be shouting ‘Pivot! Pivot! Pivaat!’ as they announced they would temporarily suspend their programme to sell gilts and will instead buy long-dated bonds.  In a statement, the bank […]

READ MORE

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St. Angelo

Is the energy crisis something that can be resolved? Was it always inevitable? Will renewable energy make it all OK? Are Western financial policies to blame? All this and more in today’s The M3 Report! If you’re not already subscribed to GoldCoreTV then click here right now to make sure you’re all set to watch the fifth […]

READ MORE

Brace Yourself for the Impact

Fed’s message this week – higher rates, lower economic growth, higher unemployment. The Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting and the statement said that the committee anticipates further increases. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that the median projection is for a further 1.25% increase by yearend. […]

READ MORE

Featured

Rick Rule- Should You Invest In Gold 2022

READ MORE

Jim Rogers- The Worst Bear Market is Coming

READ MORE
Newsletter
Category
Archives
Popular

No posts available

Videos

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St. Angelo

What we can Learn from the International Gold Market

Jim Rogers Interview 2022

Blog posts

Ross Geller inspires Bank of England policy

This morning the UK pound slumped as one of the world’s oldest central banks pressed hard on the panic button. The Bank of England was seen to be shouting ‘Pivot! Pivot! Pivaat!’ as they announced they would temporarily suspend their programme to sell gilts and will instead buy long-dated bonds.  In a statement, the bank […]

READ MORE

Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St. Angelo

Is the energy crisis something that can be resolved? Was it always inevitable? Will renewable energy make it all OK? Are Western financial policies to blame? All this and more in today’s The M3 Report! If you’re not already subscribed to GoldCoreTV then click here right now to make sure you’re all set to watch the fifth […]

READ MORE

Brace Yourself for the Impact

Fed’s message this week – higher rates, lower economic growth, higher unemployment. The Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting and the statement said that the committee anticipates further increases. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that the median projection is for a further 1.25% increase by yearend. […]

READ MORE

Featured

Rick Rule- Should You Invest In Gold 2022

READ MORE

Jim Rogers- The Worst Bear Market is Coming

READ MORE