Central Banks Quietly Accumulating Gold – Declared Purchases of 206 Tons Through September 2011

Gold is trading at USD 1,759, EUR 1,271.10, GBP 1,097.40, JPY 137,261, CHF 1,552.30, and AUD 1,690.40 per ounce.

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,756.00, GBP 1,096.47, and EUR 1,269.61per ounce.

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,732.50, GBP 1,083.69, and EUR 1,257.25 per ounce.


Cross Currency Table

Gold is lower in most major currencies including in US dollars after rising more than 1% yesterday. Prices remain near their highest in six weeks as uncertainty surrounding the euro zone debt crisis and the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro continues to support gold.

Gold appears to have broken out above resistance at $1,750/oz after consolidating between $1,600 and $1,750 in recent weeks.

Demand for gold bullion remains broad based and global in nature. One of the most important sources of demand continues to be central bank demand.

According to data from the IMF, central banks continue to be significant net buyers of gold. Mexico has added most to its reserves, with a net 83.7T of gold between January and September 2011, followed by Russia, which has added 59.3T this year, and Thailand, which has added 52.9T (see chart).


Central Bank Purchases of Gold  in 2011

Many market participants and non gold and silver experts tend to focus on the daily fluctuations and “noise” of the market and not see the “big picture” major change in the fundamental supply and demand situation in the bullion markets – particularly due to investment and central bank demand from China, India and the rest of an increasingly wealthy Asia. 

The central banks of India and China are rightly believed to be again quietly accumulating gold and the IMF figures do not include this potentially very important and significant source of demand.

China’s gold reserves are very small when compared to those of the US and indebted European nations. They are miniscule when compared with China’s massive foreign exchange reserves of over $3 trillion. 

The People’s Bank of China is almost certainly continuing to quietly accumulate gold bullion reserves. As was the case previously, they will not announce their gold bullion purchases to the market in order to ensure they accumulate sizeable reserves at more competitive prices. They also do not wish to create a run on the dollar – thereby devaluing their sizeable reserves.

The deepening Eurozone debt crisis and real possibility means that central bank demand will remain robust and may even increase in the coming months.

Central bank demand has put a floor under the gold market and will likely help propel prices above the nominal record high in the coming weeks.

Comparing the gold market of today to the gold market of 1980 is ridiculous. Talk of the gold bubble bursting remains extremely ill informed.

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SILVER 
Silver is trading at $34.41/oz, €24.84/oz and £21.46/oz 

PLATINUM GROUP METALS 
Platinum is trading at $1,636.20/oz, palladium at $653/oz and rhodium at $1,525/oz.

NEWS
(Reuters) 
Gold eases after rally, holds near 6-week top

(MarketWatch) 
Gold futures climb to six-week high

(Bloomberg) 
Gartman Sees Gold in Euros at Record as Currency Slides: Chart of the Day

(24.com) 
G20 mulls global liquidity boost using IMF

COMMENTARY
(Bloomberg) 
James Rickards on the U.S Dollar, Treasuries, Euro and China

(Barron’s) 
Gold Clears Key Hurdle: Can It Hold? ABX, GG Lead Miners Higher

(ZeroHedge) 
MF Bankruptcy Causes Biggest Foreign Bank Liquidity Scramble To ‘Fed Safety’ Ever, Harbinger Of Major Eurobank Stress

 

 

Mark OByrne

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